About Michael Gasiorek

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Michael Gasiorek has created 90 blog entries.

A Fine Kettle of Fish

23 March 2021 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Suzannah Walmsley is Principal Consultant and Fisheries and Aquaculture Business Development Manager at ABPmer. Last week the UK’s trade data for January 2021 came out and the evidence was pretty striking. It showed a dramatic decline in UK exports and imports in January, and particularly so with the EU. Now some of this will have been driven by Covid-related lockdown restrictions, and some of the dramatic fall in trade with the EU itself may have been driven by firms’ stockpiling in November and December to protect themselves against the much-publicised potential border difficulties arising from the UK’s exit from the EU and the end of the transition period. In this blog we dig a bit deeper into those numbers and focus just on fisheries. […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:09:17+01:0023 March 2021|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment

The value of the CPTPP for the UK

3 February 2021 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO.  Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade, and Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics, both for the UKTPO. As widely anticipated and signalled in advance, the International Trade Secretary announced on Monday 1 February that the UK notified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), of its intention to join. The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between 11 ‘Pacific’ countries which was signed in 2018.[1] This is an early step in the UK’s newfound and hard-won sovereign and independent trade policy. […]

BP 52 – Taking Stock of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement: Trade in Goods

Download Briefing Paper 52 Briefing Paper 52 – January 2021 Yohannes Ayele, Michael Gasiorek, Peter Holmes, Anna Jerzewska, Suzannah Walmsley Key Points Introduction Tariffs Customs and Trade Facilitation Rules of Origin Mutual Recognition of Testing and Certification Fisheries Conclusion Key Points The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) offers complete elimination of tariffs and quotas providing firms can prove their goods satisfy the rules of origin requirements, and providing no measures are introduced for other purposes such as trade defence or ‘rebalancing’ measures. The rules of origin are complex, bespoke and compared to those used on other EU agreements they differ in terms of distribution and details. In some cases, they appear more liberal than those used in the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean(PEM) system, in other cases the reverse applies. Customs and trade facilitation in the TCA is comprehensive and broad and provides for the possibility of close cooperation in order to facilitate bilateral trade between the UK and the EU. There is no chapter on the mutual recognition of conformity assessment (to standards), although there are some minor elements of mutual recognition, for example, with regard to automobiles and self-certification for least sensitive products. This will raise the bureaucratic complexity and [...]

By , , , , |2025-12-12T10:39:35+00:0015 January 2021|Comments Off on BP 52 – Taking Stock of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement: Trade in Goods

Briefing Paper 52 – TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN GOODS

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper focusses on the provisions on trade in goods. It provides an analysis of the changes in tariffs; customs and trade facilitation; rules of origin; mutual recognition of testing and certification and takes a close look at one sector – fisheries – that was so contentious during the negotiations. The TCA is highly unusual in that it is an agreement which raises barriers to trade, and whilst it offers complete elimination of tariffs and quotas many other costs relating to trade have not been successfully minimized. Read Briefing Paper 52: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT:  TRADE IN GOODS 

A quick recap on the costs of No Deal

15 December 2020 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  There has rightly been much talk recently about the disruption and economic damage that would result from a No Deal Brexit, and hence the economic importance of avoiding this outcome. This is on top of the economic havoc being wreaked by the Coronavirus pandemic. Despite this, we have seen the Prime Minister suggesting that No Deal would be a ‘good outcome’ for the UK and that the UK would prosper. How can this be squared? […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:14:59+01:0015 December 2020|UK- EU|2 Comments

UK-EU trade relations: A checklist of 10 key issues

20 November 2020 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UKTPO. Discussions and evaluations on the future UK-EU relationship have been on-going since the referendum of June 2016, and we are close to another milestone – by the end of the year, we will either have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU or no-deal. Note this is a milestone and not the endgame. Whether or not there is an agreement there will still be considerable practicalities to resolve, and no doubt some areas will be open to future negotiation. There is a lot of talk in the press about sticking points (fisheries, state aid and level playing field provisions, dispute settlement) but how good the deal is for the UK will depend on the scope and the depth of what is agreed, and whether some areas are only notionally covered and need to be sorted out in future negotiations. […]

By |2025-07-18T10:16:20+01:0020 November 2020|UK- EU|2 Comments

BP 45 – We’re going to make them an offer they can refuse: Rules of origin and the UK-EU free trade agreement

Download Briefing Paper 45 Briefing Paper 45 – July 2020 Michael Gasiorek and Julia Magntorn Garrett Key Points Introduction What are rules of origin and why they are needed? Rules of origin are complex Cumulation of rules of origin Which sectors may be more vulnerable to tight rules of origin? Proposals for UK negotiating priorities Conclusion Key points Rules of origin can be very complex. They apply at a detailed product level, there are a range of different types of rules that can apply and it is not unusual that more than one rule applies to a product. How they are set matters because it impacts on the degree of protection or liberalisation offered to a given industry. Sectors such as Processed Foodstuffs, Materials, Chemicals, Textiles, Automotives and transport equipment, and Machinery and Electronics are sectors where the consequences of restrictive rules of origin for individual firms may be more significant. Because rules of origin can be constraining and increase firms’ costs, the aim should be to maximise the possibilities for cumulation – bilateral and diagonal, and to minimise the bureaucratic costs. In its draft Treaty the UK is proposing to allow for full bilateral cumulation as well [...]

By , |2025-12-17T16:27:41+00:0027 July 2020|Comments Off on BP 45 – We’re going to make them an offer they can refuse: Rules of origin and the UK-EU free trade agreement

Briefing Paper 45 – WE’RE GOING TO MAKE THEM AN OFFER THEY CAN REFUSE: RULES OF ORIGIN AND THE UK-EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

The UK’s negotiation of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU will necessarily involve defining rules of origin, and before long negotiations with countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia will face the same task. In this Briefing Paper, the authors outline what rules of origin are, why they are needed, why they are complex, and which sectors in the UK may be most vulnerable to more restrictive rules of origin. They also discuss why the EU is highly unlikely to agree to the UK’s proposal on cumulation in rules of origin and argue that the obvious solution to this is for the UK to agree to the EU’s Pan Euro-Mediterranean Rules of Origin (PEM) which are the basis of the EU’s cumulation arrangements with a wide range of its neighbours. Any other outcome is likely to reduce the UK’s take up of trade preferences in its FTA with the EU. Read Briefing Paper 45: WE’RE GOING TO MAKE THEM AN OFFER THEY CAN REFUSE: RULES OF ORIGIN AND THE UK-EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

BP 41 – The unresolved difficulties of the Northern Ireland protocol

Download Briefing Paper 41 Briefing Paper 41 – June 2020 Michael Gasiorek and Anna Jerzewska Key Points Introduction Differences in emphasis and interpretation The ‘which’ Flows from Great Britain to Northern Ireland Determining Risk New UK tariffs Determining Origin Regulatory Compliance Flows from Northern Ireland to GB Imports by Northern Ireland from third countries The ‘how’ Conclusion Footnotes Key Points The UK Government’s Command Paper on Northern Ireland reveals some significant differences between the position of the UK and that of the EU with respect to operationalising the Northern Ireland Protocol. These will no doubt spill over into the on-going future relationship negotiations. Some of the differences are more to do with positioning and may not be substantive. Others, such as re-interpreting the original wording of the Protocol of goods “at risk” to goods where there is “a genuine and substantial risk”, may be more substantial. The substantive differences concern which goods will be subject to checks, on which flows, and how the checks will be carried out to the satisfaction of both the UK and the EU; and relatedly, what infrastructure and institutions are needed. Determining which goods are at risk will be challenging as the final [...]

By , |2025-12-17T16:08:27+00:005 June 2020|Comments Off on BP 41 – The unresolved difficulties of the Northern Ireland protocol

Briefing Paper 41 – THE UNRESOLVED DIFFICULTIES OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL

In this Briefing Paper, Michael Gasiorek and Anna Jerzewska provide an analysis of the UK’s recently published Command Paper. They argue that it highlights significant differences between the UK and the EU and does not fully address the challenges which come from the special situation around the border in the Irish Sea.  As a result, they warn that businesses should expect more paperwork, bureaucracy and additional costs on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain when the transition period ends in seven months’ time. Among the key stumbling blocks between the UK Government and EU that the Command Paper fails to resolve are the criteria for determining when a good is not at risk of moving into the EU market and would therefore not be subject to tariffs. Furthermore, permitting goods from Northern Ireland to freely enter Great Britain, could impact on the UK’s trade relations with third countries and even lead to WTO disputes. Read Briefing Paper 41: THE UNRESOLVED DIFFICULTIES OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL

By , |2024-11-20T13:14:35+00:001 June 2020|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
Go to Top