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So far Michael Gasiorek has created 90 blog entries.

Reflections on the UK Global Tariff: good in principle, but perhaps not for relations with the EU

21 May 2020 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Let’s start at the very beginning… Suppose a country was (more or less) starting from scratch with its trade policy, and anticipated wanting to sign future trade agreements with other countries. What might you want from that country’s tariff structure? At the end of the day it is important to remember that tariffs are discriminatory taxes (i.e. they discriminate against foreign suppliers) which reduce competition, distort markets and lower national welfare. So, aiming to get to low (zero) tariffs is a good objective. But there may also be some other considerations. Here are some guidelines: […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:44:42+01:0021 May 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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New tariff on the block: What is in the UK’s Global Tariff?

20 May 2020 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory, Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  On Tuesday 19th May the UK’s ‘Global Tariff’ was published. These are the tariffs that will apply on any products that the UK imports on a Most Favoured Nation (MFN) basis from the end of the transition period when the UK is no longer bound by the EU’s Common External Tariff. The published tariffs come after a public consultation on the subject was held in February this year. This note summarises how the new tariff compares to the UK’s current MFN tariffs (which are also the rates that the UK has bound in the WTO for after the transition period) and outlines what has changed since the tariff consultation. […]

By , , |2025-07-18T10:46:05+01:0020 May 2020|UK- EU|17 Comments
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BP 39 – Recommendations on the UK Government’s Global Tariff proposals

Download Briefing Paper 39 Briefing Paper 39 – March 2020 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett, Nicolo Tamberi, L. Alan Winters List of recommendations Introduction Evaluating the effects of the Government’s tariff proposals The UK’s current MFN tariff structure Tariffs with the proposed ‘simplification’ Agricultural tariffs Eliminating tariffs on intermediates Eliminating tariffs on items where there is no domestic production Recommendations Footnotes List of recommendations: Recommendation 1: In the near future, maintain as much as possible the existing structure of applied tariffs. Recommendation 2: Reducing firms’ imported input costs in order to increase their competitiveness is potentially a sensible strategy, but is not without its downsides. Recommendation 3: Decisions regarding the structure of applied tariffs should be made bearing in mind the possible regional consequences of any changes. Recommendation 4: The analysis of the impact of tariff changes on prices and households should be undertaken at a detailed level. Recommendation 5: Before eliminating tariffs on goods not produced within the UK, the impact on developing countries should be evaluated. Recommendation 6: We strongly support the idea of encouraging trade in environmental goods, but suggest that any such policy should not be based on the existing lists. Instead the government [...]

By , , , |2025-12-17T11:55:50+00:0018 March 2020|Comments Off on BP 39 – Recommendations on the UK Government’s Global Tariff proposals
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Briefing Paper 39 – RECOMMENDATIONS ON THE UK GOVERNMENT’S GLOBAL TARIFF PROPOSALS

The UK left the European Union on January 31, 2020. As the UK Government begins to develop the UK’s independent trade policy for the post-transition period, one part of the preparations is to establish the UK’s independent tariff schedule that will apply to goods imported into the UK. In February 2020, the Department for International Trade launched a public consultation concerning the UK’s applied Most Favoured Nation tariffs. This briefing paper outlines the proposals under consideration, discusses their potential implications, and provides our recommendations on the issues that we believe are important for the UK Government to consider when formulating the UK’s trade policy going forward. We explore the structure of the UK’s MFN tariff as a member of the EU and then analyse the potential impact of simplifying the tariff structure for firms, households, the environment and domestic policy objectives. Read Briefing Paper 39: RECOMMENDATIONS ON THE UK GOVERNMENT’S GLOBAL TARIFF PROPOSALS  

By , , , |2024-11-20T13:14:59+00:001 March 2020|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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How much is a Free Trade Agreement with the US worth to the UK economy?

12 December 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  Following Brexit, and assuming the UK is no longer part of a customs union with the EU, the UK will be able to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) with third countries. Indeed, the Conservative manifesto aims to have 80% of UK trade covered by FTAs within three years. This is clearly unrealistic, because it would require signing agreements with more than 12 countries within a time-scale which has rarely been achieved for a single agreement.  The objective, however,  highlights that, post-Brexit, there will be a lot of focus on trying to sign FTAs. Other than the somewhat significant matter of signing an agreement with the EU, top of the UK’s FTA wish list is an agreement with the US. […]

By , |2025-07-18T11:00:39+01:0012 December 2019|Uncategorised|6 Comments
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Better than the status quo for Northern Ireland? Not quite so simple

24 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  There has been some discussion that the unique arrangements outlined in the Protocol on Northern Ireland within the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and the EU mean that Northern Ireland may get the best of both worlds – tariff-free access to both the EU Single Market and the UK market. This is because Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, however, for trade between Northern Ireland and the EU (and therefore the Republic of Ireland) the EU’s Union Customs Code will apply, with no tariffs or other restrictions. Northern Ireland will also remain within the EU’s single market for agriculture and manufactured goods. The aim of this blog is to think through this carefully. […]

By |2025-07-18T11:05:05+01:0024 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments
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Economic realities of Brexit for firms and people in Northern Ireland

14 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  With the current state of negotiations between the UK and the EU it is easy to see why attention is focussed on the politics of a possible agreement. The contentious issue is, of course, that of the Irish border. However, the focus on the politics means that there has been little discussion of the economic impacts and specifically of the vulnerability of the Northern Irish economy to the decisions being made. […]

By |2025-07-18T11:06:56+01:0014 October 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment
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BP 33 – Winners and Losers from International Trade: What do we know and what are the implications for policy?

Download Briefing Paper 33 Briefing Paper 33 – July 2019 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett and Ilona Serwicka Introduction Conceptual Background Why is Trade a ‘Good Thing’…But Not Necessarily For All? Winners and Losers: What is the Evidence? People The China Effect The Skill Premium Within Industry Effects Trade and Gender Places Policy Responses Losers Winners Conclusion Footnotes Watch: Briefing Paper Launch and Panel Discussion INTRODUCTION Economists have long argued, and with good justification, that international trade brings overall benefits to economies. However, increasing trade is likely to create losers as well as winners. Indeed, within a broader context of rising inequality in many countries, recent years have seen growing public concern surrounding the negative consequences of trade and globalisation for certain sectors of society.[1] Those concerns, in turn, are seen as being partly responsible for the rise in populism in some developed countries.[2] Given such developments, and as the UK prepares to leave the EU and have an independent trade policy, it is important to understand how future trade agreements, or policy changes, may affect economic outcomes such as prices, productivity and output, and through these, individuals and regions. The aim of this Briefing Paper is, therefore, [...]

By , , |2025-12-17T16:32:38+00:0018 July 2019|Comments Off on BP 33 – Winners and Losers from International Trade: What do we know and what are the implications for policy?
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Hiccups that make us reel

15 July 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and  Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  A favourite band (of at least one of the authors of this blog) from the 1980s was the Cocteau Twins (See, or rather listen to…Sugar Hiccup) – well-known for the dreamy unintelligibility of their lyrics.  Which of course leads to the dreamy unintelligibility of some of the promises being made around Brexit. Supporters of Brexit have argued that the UK need not be overly concerned with a ‘No deal’ Brexit. This ranges from positions that ‘No deal’ would not be “as frightening as people think” although there would be “some hiccups in the first year” (David Davies), and that although there may be “some disruption” Britain would “survive and prosper without a deal” (Jeremy Hunt), to arguments that the idea that ‘No deal’ would have a negative impact were “a fantasy of fevered minds” (Jacob Rees Mogg). […]

By , |2025-07-18T11:19:01+01:0015 July 2019|UK- EU|0 Comments
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Briefing Paper 33 – WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE: WHAT DO WE KNOW AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY?

Economists have long argued, and with good justification, that international trade brings overall benefits to economies. However, increasing trade is likely to create losers as well as winners. As the UK prepares to leave the EU and have an independent trade policy it is important to understand how future trade agreements, or policy changes, may affect economic outcomes such as prices, productivity and output, and through these, individuals and regions. In this Briefing Paper, the authors provide a conceptual background of how trade changes may result in winners and losers – be these consumers, workers, regions, or industries, and give an overview of what the empirical evidence tells us about how developed economies have adjusted to changes in trade. They also consider potential policy responses that could help losers from international trade adjust, and ensure that the winners can take advantage of the new opportunities created by trade liberalisation. Read Briefing Paper 33 – WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE: WHAT DO WE KNOW AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY? Launch and Panel Discussion at British Academy, 18 July 2019

By , , |2024-11-20T13:18:37+00:001 July 2019|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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