Since the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) came into force, firms trading with the EU have faced new costs as they learn to trade under new regulations and comply with customs formalities that were otherwise not present. In this Briefing Paper, we provide an analysis of UK monthly trade data to assess how UK goods trade has performed in the period January-July 2021. We also expand our analysis on preference utilization rates (PURs), which depict the extent to which UK exports to the EU have benefited from the tariff-free treatment agreed in the TCA as well as examining the impact of the TCA on trade in services in the first two quarters of 2021. Our analysis shows that the introduction of the TCA reduced trade between the UK and the EU, but this is not homogenous across sectors, although, whilst exports took a knock in January and have since recovered, the impact on imports has persisted. Furthermore, despite the zero-tariff, zero-quota trade agreement of the TCA, firms end up paying tariffs to avoid the bureaucratic costs of claiming zero tariff. The foregone duty saving amounts to £534.6 million. Read Briefing Paper 63: POST-BREXIT: TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES (II)

After decades of close economic integration, the UK’s relationship with the EU, its biggest and closest trading partner, is now governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). In this Briefing Paper we look at how UK merchandise trade has performed under the new regulations in the first quarter of 2021. We employ different methodologies to quantify a TCA-effect and find that trade with the EU was hit hard in January 2021 but may have rebounded in February and March 2021, with heterogenous effects across sectors. We also investigate the extent to which UK exports have benefited from tariff-free access in EU markets. Read Briefing Paper 57: POST-BREXIT: UK TRADE IN GOODS

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper focusses on the provisions on trade in goods. It provides an analysis of the changes in tariffs; customs and trade facilitation; rules of origin; mutual recognition of testing and certification and takes a close look at one sector – fisheries – that was so contentious during the negotiations. The TCA is highly unusual in that it is an agreement which raises barriers to trade, and whilst it offers complete elimination of tariffs and quotas many other costs relating to trade have not been successfully minimized. Read Briefing Paper 52: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT:  TRADE IN GOODS 

The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has been presented by the UK Government as the first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for the UK as an independent trading nation. This Briefing Paper provides an analysis of this new agreement in relation to the Japan-EU EPA and draws two major lessons for the UK’s future free trade agreements.  First, the authors find that it mostly replicates the Japan-EU EPA, with the UK failing to break new ground after independence from the EU trade regime. Second, they argue that substantive and inclusive policy discussions with a range of stakeholders need to take place to enable public scrutiny and discussion of the implications of policy positions, before negotiating with trade partners. Read Briefing Paper 50: The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: Lessons for the UK’s future trade agreements

In this briefing paper, Dr Ayele and Professor Winters look at whether the immediate effect of the result of the Brexit referendum –  the depreciation of sterling relative to all major currencies and the failure to increase UK exports after 2016  – could have been foreseen. They provide a brief description of recent UK trade history, followed by a review of different studies of the effect of exchange rate changes on trade prices, consumer prices and trade quantities. Finally, they explore the apparent effect of the sterling depreciation in June 2016 on UK trade and price behaviour.  The authors show that the pass-through of exchange rate changes to trade and consumer prices and thence to trade quantities is rather complex, and hence difficult to predict with any confidence. They conclude that the failure of UK exports to boom was in part due to the dramatic increase in trade-policy uncertainty that the Brexit result heralded. Read Briefing Paper 44: SHOULD THE BREXIT STERLING DEPRECIATION HAVE BOOSTED EXPORTS? HOW EXCHANGE RATES AFFECT TRADE AND PRICES