Download Briefing Paper 40 Briefing Paper 40 – April 2020 Simon J. Evenett[1] and L. Alan Winters[2] Key Points Introduction Why we need a new basis for a deal A new quid pro quo Central elements of the proposed understanding Conclusion Key points As they scramble to find medical supplies to tackle COVID-19, some countries are eliminating their restrictions in imports while others are curtailing their exports. The resulting fragmented production pattern is very costly. To discourage importers from restoring their restrictions when markets stabilise, exporters should offer to constrain their resort to export restrictions. By linking the two ideas together in a reciprocal trade bargain, exporters are assured larger markets while importers will have greater assurance about supplies. Larger and more reliable markets will stimulate investment and thereby increase supplies of critical medical products. Both exporting countries’ domestic residents and the people importing their products will benefit from the resulting lower costs. The new bargain would significantly reduce the uncertainty facing buyers and sellers of vital medical supplies should subsequent waves of COVID-19 infection occur. […]

Download Briefing Paper 39 Briefing Paper 39 – March 2020 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett, Nicolo Tamberi, L. Alan Winters List of recommendations Introduction Evaluating the effects of the Government’s tariff proposals The UK’s current MFN tariff structure Tariffs with the proposed ‘simplification’ Agricultural tariffs Eliminating tariffs on intermediates Eliminating tariffs on items where there is no domestic production Recommendations Footnotes List of recommendations: Recommendation 1: In the near future, maintain as much as possible the existing structure of applied tariffs. Recommendation 2: Reducing firms’ imported input costs in order to increase their competitiveness is potentially a sensible strategy, but is not without its downsides. Recommendation 3: Decisions regarding the structure of applied tariffs should be made bearing in mind the possible regional consequences of any changes. Recommendation 4: The analysis of the impact of tariff changes on prices and households should be undertaken at a detailed level. Recommendation 5: Before eliminating tariffs on goods not produced within the UK, the impact on developing countries should be evaluated. Recommendation 6: We strongly support the idea of encouraging trade in environmental goods, but suggest that any such policy should not be based on the existing lists. Instead the government [...]

20 January 2020 Julia Magntorn Garrett and L Alan Winters (Download the The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: The implications for Wales’ external trade report) Preliminaries This note identifies issues that may impinge directly or indirectly on the Welsh economy as a result of the adoption of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland as part of the Withdrawal Agreement and subsequent Bill. We believe the main implications for Wales from the Protocol to be: Producers in Great Britain (GB) (including Welsh producers) are likely to lose market share in Northern Ireland (NI) as goods sent from GB to NI will face new customs checks, possibly customs duties, and other regulatory/administrative checks, while NI trade with the EU (notably with the Republic of Ireland – RoI) will remain frictionless. If Great Britain relaxes its regulations relative to EU regulations, NI producers might operate under higher costs than GB firms, as NI producers would still need to produce to EU standards. NI firms may therefore struggle to compete in the GB market. The more extensive are the trade barriers between the UK and the EU (notably RoI), and the less extensive are the border checks between GB and NI, the more incentive there will [...]