In this Briefing Paper, its authors consider the potential economic opportunities for the UK arising from the current CPTPP in comparison with the likelihood of further expansion in the future. They evaluate the UK’s economic opportunities with both current and potential CPTPP members, including trade in goods, trade in services, supply chain relationships and rules of origin. They also compare the CPTPP’s policies, with those of current and potential CPTPP members and explain why the UK Government should develop and articulate a strategic plan based on the political reality surrounding the CPTPP. Read Briefing Paper 75: JOINING THE CPTPP: ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES AND POLITICAL DILEMMAS OF FUTURE EXPANSIONS FOR THE UK.

This year, the UK Government will replace its current preferential trading scheme for low and lower-middle income countries with the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS). This Briefing Paper looks at and evaluates two key changes in the DCTS: changes in the eligibility criteria for the Enhanced Preferences sub-scheme, and changes in the rules of origin to use preferences under the Comprehensive Preferences sub-scheme offered to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Using a novel RoOs Restrictiveness Index, the authors find that the RoOs under the DCTS are, on average, less restrictive than those under the former scheme. They also conclude that most benefits are likely to be accrued by LDCs both in the short and long term due to more lenient rules of origin, extended cumulation rules, and being eligible for the Enhanced DCTS if they graduate from LDC status. Read Briefing Paper 74: THE UK’S NEW (AND IMPROVED?) DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TRADING SCHEME

Policy discussions about the effects and opportunities of international trade recognise that some parts of the economy might be more sensitive than others to changes in trade and/or trade policy, but the concept of a sensitive industry has different meanings. In our Briefing Paper, Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors, we aim to provide a conceptual framework for considering the factors that could identify industries that may be sensitive or strategic from a trade perspective; to review the range of information that can identify these factors; and to illustrate the ways in which this information can be usefully applied. Accompanying the Briefing Paper is a spreadsheet file with the underlying indicators and some tools of analysis which we hope will be of use and interest to some readers. The spreadsheet also includes detailed information about data sources and any data adjustments made. Read Briefing Paper 71: IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

In this paper we discuss how the customs and tax benefits central to the UK Freeports policy may undermine businesses’ export opportunities. Many of the UK’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) contain provisions explicitly denying preferential (duty-free) access to goods which contain imported materials on which UK customs duty was not paid (known as “duty drawback bans”). But, even in the absence of duty drawback bans, the preferential status of goods manufactured in Freeports is not guaranteed. There are other ways in which goods exported from Freeports might find themselves subject to penalties, such as anti-subsidy duties (whether under WTO or FTA rules), if partner countries consider that the regime in Freeports constitutes implicit subsidisation (e.g., via tax breaks). Lastly, we highlight the diverse experience of free ports and free zones around the world. Read Briefing Paper 69: Exporting from UK Freeports: Duty Drawback, Origin and Subsidies

In addition to the military support being given to Ukraine, efforts to halt any further Russian advancements continue to be focused on economic sanctions that aim to hamper Russia’s ability to finance the invasion. This Briefing Paper provides analysis of the pros, cons and effectiveness of current trade policy responses in terms of the short-term aim of cutting Russia’s oil rents and the long-term aim of creating a complete Energy Curtain between Russia and the West. We find that whilst current interventions may go some way in meeting the target of decoupling from Russian oil and gas, they may not be effective in the aim of impacting negatively on Russian revenues, and in the process serve to raise energy prices. While high prices on fossil fuels are beneficial for the green transition, this is only true when there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels available. Read Briefing Paper 68: The Energy Curtain: All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer