About Guillermo Larbalestier

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So far Guillermo Larbalestier has created 31 blog entries.

Freeports: why the sudden excitement?

22 August 2022 Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. After time in the shade, Freeports are back in the news. The policy has been embraced and a subject of discourse by both PM candidates, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, as part of their “benefits from Brexit” claims and “levelling up” strategies. There has also recently been concern by some commentators that Freeports risk becoming ‘Charter Cities’. […]

By , |2025-07-17T16:35:09+01:0022 August 2022|Blog, UK - Non EU, UK- EU|3 Comments

What has happened to UK-Japan trade one year after signing the CEPA FTA?

8 August 2022 Minako Morita-Jaeger is Policy Research Fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory andSenior Research Fellow in International Trade in the Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) came into force in January 2021, as part of the UK’s post-Brexit trading arrangements. CEPA was designed to largely replicate the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), to which the UK had been a party. On the face of it, there was little additional economic value to the UK, since CEPA provisions follow EPA provisions so closely, except for a chapter on digital trade. […]

BP 68 – The Energy Curtain – All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

  Briefing Paper 68 – August 2022 Camilla Jensen, Guillermo Larbalestier, Peter Holmes Key Points Introduction Background Oil versus Gas                                                                                                                     The importance of market power to policy analysis          Import tariffs, import bans or a buyer’s club price cap? Policy evaluation Conclusion                                                                                                                                                                              Download Briefing Paper 68   Key Points Economic sanctions against Russia targeted [...]

By , , |2025-12-17T15:51:57+00:003 August 2022|Comments Off on BP 68 – The Energy Curtain – All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

Briefing Paper 68 – THE ENERGY CURTAIN: ALL EYES ON FOSSIL FUEL PRICES THIS SUMMER

In addition to the military support being given to Ukraine, efforts to halt any further Russian advancements continue to be focused on economic sanctions that aim to hamper Russia’s ability to finance the invasion. This Briefing Paper provides analysis of the pros, cons and effectiveness of current trade policy responses in terms of the short-term aim of cutting Russia’s oil rents and the long-term aim of creating a complete Energy Curtain between Russia and the West. We find that whilst current interventions may go some way in meeting the target of decoupling from Russian oil and gas, they may not be effective in the aim of impacting negatively on Russian revenues, and in the process serve to raise energy prices. While high prices on fossil fuels are beneficial for the green transition, this is only true when there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels available. Read Briefing Paper 68: The Energy Curtain: All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

Cutting tariffs on food products: why bother?

6 May 2022 L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics at University of Sussex Business School and Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. The concept is simple: cut tariffs levied on food imports so the products become cheaper in the UK, right? In this blog, we look at the trade data and discuss the reasons why changing tariffs would hardly affect prices.[1] Only a small proportion of imports pay tariffs. In 2021, the UK imported £38.6 billion of food products[2] (equivalent to 7.6% of the UK’s total imports that year and about 46% of UK food consumption). Approximately 66% come from the EU and are already exempt from tariffs under the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).[3] […]

BP 66 – Links between services and manufacturing trade in the UK: Mode 5 and beyond

Briefing Paper 66 – January 2022 Download Briefing Paper 66 Ingo Borchert, Michael Gasiorek, Guillermo Larbalestier, Nicolo Tamberi Key Points Introduction Global value chains and vertical fragmentation in services and manufacturing industries Approaches to measurement UK engagement in value chains, specifically mode 5 Services value-added share Services value-added share and exports intensity Services value-added share and foreign ownership in industries Which services are used as inputs? The importance of manufacturing and other sectors for service industries What can we learn from using firm-level data? Who trades services? Who trades goods? The use of services by manufacturing firms Impact of UK FTAs on services trade and Mode 5 UK-EU TCA effects Conclusion Disclaimer Key Points Services increasingly matter for the UK economy and for UK trade. Services can be traded either directly, be this by selling a design service from one country to another or by sending a consultant abroad, or they can be traded indirectly as inputs into goods trade. The latter is often referred to as ‘Mode 5 services trade.’ The interconnectedness of services trade and goods trade does not simply derive from the use of services by goods producers, but also because services themselves are traded by [...]

By , , , |2025-12-12T16:03:56+00:001 February 2022|Comments Off on BP 66 – Links between services and manufacturing trade in the UK: Mode 5 and beyond

Briefing Paper 66 – LINKS BETWEEN SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING TRADE IN THE UK: MODE 5 AND BEYOND

This Briefing Paper aims to further understanding of the importance of trade in services for the UK economy. In particular, to shed light on the relationship between services and manufacturing trade, including an increasingly significant form of services trade known as Mode 5. We explore input-output data, firm-level data and the links between services and manufacturing in the context of the UK’s independent trade policy. The authors provide evidence that shows that the nature of how these services interact with goods trade and the policy or market access barriers and their implications need to be understood in much greater detail for policy purposes. Read Briefing Paper 66: Links between services and manufacturing trade in the UK: Mode 5 and beyond

The Ukraine-Russia crisis and possible trade sanctions

27 January 2022 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex and Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. The crisis between Ukraine and Russia is deeply concerning – for the people of Ukraine, but also in terms of broader ramifications for world order and stability. NATO’s strategy to avoid direct military action against Russia points at diplomacy and economic sanctions. It is therefore useful to consider the possible role of these in the realm of international trade. As we show below, Russian trade is highly dependent on the EU and NATO member states. Hence, the scope for the use of such policy is there. This is not an argument, however, for so doing – as that involves complex political trade-offs (which are beyond the scope of this blog). The importance of Russia as a supplier in particular sectors, notably energy, and hence the dependence of the EU and NATO member states on Russia is also a factor in those trade-offs. […]

By , |2025-07-18T09:49:33+01:0027 January 2022|Uncategorised|2 Comments

BP 65 – Deepening and Managing Transatlantic Economic Relationships

Download Briefing Paper 65 Briefing Paper 65 – December 2021 Peter Holmes and Guillermo Larbalestier Key Points Introduction How important is the UK-US trade relationship and what are the main challenges? Goods Trade Regulatory Challenges Agriculture and Agri-food Services Trade and Digital Trade Value Chain Activity Trade in Intermediates Trade in Value-added (TiVA) Supply Chain Resilience Where does the UK fit into the US-EU-China trilateral relationship? Climate change cooperation Conclusion Key Points The UK Government has signed (or “rolled-over”) trade deals with the EU and almost 70 other countries as part of its post-Brexit Global Britain vision. However, a trade deal with its largest single-country trading partner – the US – remains elusive despite significant economic interests and rounds of official negotiations. The bilateral commercial relationship is biased towards services and investment as opposed to goods. Despite this, Free Trade Agreement (FTA) provisions on market access for goods present some of the bigger obstacles towards consolidating the agreement. In the absence of an FTA, closer economic integration is more likely to be achieved through ad-hoc regulatory deals and other stand-alone deals that could address trade barriers specific to sectors or industries. The UK’s ability to lead the world [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:44:08+00:0021 December 2021|Comments Off on BP 65 – Deepening and Managing Transatlantic Economic Relationships

Briefing Paper 65 DEEPENING AND MANAGING TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS

In this Briefing Paper, the authors review the importance of the UK-US trade relationship and identify clear interests for closer economic cooperation. They discuss the main challenges for trade discussions and suggest that bilateral cooperation – primarily in ad hoc regulatory areas – has potential, but there is a lack of interest on the US side. Finally, they look at broader economic issues and systematic policy issues, such as climate change, and multilateral economic relations where the UK hopes to cooperate with the US. Read Briefing Paper 65: DEEPENING AND MANAGING TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS

By , |2024-11-20T13:02:39+00:002 December 2021|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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