About Peter Holmes

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

Driving round the bend: Rules of origin and cars

8 June 2023 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Manuel Tong Koecklin is a Research Fellow in the Economics of Trade at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and University of Sussex Business School. Recently, there have been a series of reports in the media focussing on the challenges that electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers are likely to face, from the end of this year, in exporting electric vehicles tariff-free to the EU. The concern it because of the changes in the rules of origin (ROOs) requirements (for EVs and batteries) which will become more difficult from January 2024, and again from 2027 and 2028 onwards. […]

BP 69 – Exporting from UK Freeports: Duty Drawback, Origin and Subsidies

Briefing Paper 69 – September 2022 Download Briefing Paper 69 Peter Holmes, Anna Jerzewska and Guillermo Larbalestier Key Points Introduction Freeports and Duty Drawback Prohibition in FTAs Freeports and Origin Freeports and Subsidies How has this been addressed in other agreements? Conclusions Key Points This paper discusses some of the obstacles that goods from UK Freeports may face when exported to countries with which the UK has a preferential trading relationship. Many of the UK’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) contain provisions that deny preferential access to goods which, during their manufacturing process, benefited from duty drawback, i.e. the refund of – or exemption from – customs duty on imported inputs. The originating status of goods produced in free ports may be affected by rules going beyond direct provisions in FTAs. The origin of a good produced in a free port may be affected by the customs legislation of a trading partner. The tax incentives offered by the UK Freeports may be perceived by an importing partner as unfair export subsidies. Counter measures against subsidies may be taken under provisions in the FTAs, World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, or unilaterally. FTA agreements around the world treat free ports differently. [...]

By , , |2025-12-12T11:15:34+00:0030 September 2022|Comments Off on BP 69 – Exporting from UK Freeports: Duty Drawback, Origin and Subsidies

Briefing Paper 69 – EXPORTING FROM UK FREEPORTS: DUTY DRAWBACK, ORIGIN AND SUBSIDIES

In this paper we discuss how the customs and tax benefits central to the UK Freeports policy may undermine businesses’ export opportunities. Many of the UK’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) contain provisions explicitly denying preferential (duty-free) access to goods which contain imported materials on which UK customs duty was not paid (known as “duty drawback bans”). But, even in the absence of duty drawback bans, the preferential status of goods manufactured in Freeports is not guaranteed. There are other ways in which goods exported from Freeports might find themselves subject to penalties, such as anti-subsidy duties (whether under WTO or FTA rules), if partner countries consider that the regime in Freeports constitutes implicit subsidisation (e.g., via tax breaks). Lastly, we highlight the diverse experience of free ports and free zones around the world. Read Briefing Paper 69: Exporting from UK Freeports: Duty Drawback, Origin and Subsidies

Freeports: why the sudden excitement?

22 August 2022 Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. After time in the shade, Freeports are back in the news. The policy has been embraced and a subject of discourse by both PM candidates, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, as part of their “benefits from Brexit” claims and “levelling up” strategies. There has also recently been concern by some commentators that Freeports risk becoming ‘Charter Cities’. […]

By , |2025-07-17T16:35:09+01:0022 August 2022|Blog, UK - Non EU, UK- EU|3 Comments

BP 68 – The Energy Curtain – All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

  Briefing Paper 68 – August 2022 Camilla Jensen, Guillermo Larbalestier, Peter Holmes Key Points Introduction Background Oil versus Gas                                                                                                                     The importance of market power to policy analysis          Import tariffs, import bans or a buyer’s club price cap? Policy evaluation Conclusion                                                                                                                                                                              Download Briefing Paper 68   Key Points Economic sanctions against Russia targeted [...]

By , , |2025-12-17T15:51:57+00:003 August 2022|Comments Off on BP 68 – The Energy Curtain – All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

Briefing Paper 68 – THE ENERGY CURTAIN: ALL EYES ON FOSSIL FUEL PRICES THIS SUMMER

In addition to the military support being given to Ukraine, efforts to halt any further Russian advancements continue to be focused on economic sanctions that aim to hamper Russia’s ability to finance the invasion. This Briefing Paper provides analysis of the pros, cons and effectiveness of current trade policy responses in terms of the short-term aim of cutting Russia’s oil rents and the long-term aim of creating a complete Energy Curtain between Russia and the West. We find that whilst current interventions may go some way in meeting the target of decoupling from Russian oil and gas, they may not be effective in the aim of impacting negatively on Russian revenues, and in the process serve to raise energy prices. While high prices on fossil fuels are beneficial for the green transition, this is only true when there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels available. Read Briefing Paper 68: The Energy Curtain: All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

What we can do to fix Brexit and the Irish Border crisis

23 May 2022 Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School UK trade with Europe has significantly fallen off (see UKTPO BP 63 for an early assessment). UK GDP has fallen by 4%. If we cancel the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) – which is all the talk at the moment – the economic consequences of Brexit will get worse and let’s not even think about the political consequences. Is any of this fixable? Yes, if we look ahead to 2025 when the Brexit agreement with the EU—formally known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) —is up for its 5-yearly review. UK stakeholders, including political parties planning their manifestoes ahead of the next UK general election in 2024, should consider their Brexit positions now – but it’s not a case of leave or remain, rather a case of ‘tweak the Brexit agreement to something that better suits us’. […]

By |2025-07-18T09:39:47+01:0023 May 2022|Blog, UK- EU|1 Comment

BP 65 – Deepening and Managing Transatlantic Economic Relationships

Download Briefing Paper 65 Briefing Paper 65 – December 2021 Peter Holmes and Guillermo Larbalestier Key Points Introduction How important is the UK-US trade relationship and what are the main challenges? Goods Trade Regulatory Challenges Agriculture and Agri-food Services Trade and Digital Trade Value Chain Activity Trade in Intermediates Trade in Value-added (TiVA) Supply Chain Resilience Where does the UK fit into the US-EU-China trilateral relationship? Climate change cooperation Conclusion Key Points The UK Government has signed (or “rolled-over”) trade deals with the EU and almost 70 other countries as part of its post-Brexit Global Britain vision. However, a trade deal with its largest single-country trading partner – the US – remains elusive despite significant economic interests and rounds of official negotiations. The bilateral commercial relationship is biased towards services and investment as opposed to goods. Despite this, Free Trade Agreement (FTA) provisions on market access for goods present some of the bigger obstacles towards consolidating the agreement. In the absence of an FTA, closer economic integration is more likely to be achieved through ad-hoc regulatory deals and other stand-alone deals that could address trade barriers specific to sectors or industries. The UK’s ability to lead the world [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:44:08+00:0021 December 2021|Comments Off on BP 65 – Deepening and Managing Transatlantic Economic Relationships

Briefing Paper 65 DEEPENING AND MANAGING TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS

In this Briefing Paper, the authors review the importance of the UK-US trade relationship and identify clear interests for closer economic cooperation. They discuss the main challenges for trade discussions and suggest that bilateral cooperation – primarily in ad hoc regulatory areas – has potential, but there is a lack of interest on the US side. Finally, they look at broader economic issues and systematic policy issues, such as climate change, and multilateral economic relations where the UK hopes to cooperate with the US. Read Briefing Paper 65: DEEPENING AND MANAGING TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS

By , |2024-11-20T13:02:39+00:002 December 2021|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Two key things to know about Freeports

25 February 2021 Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UKTPO. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex. The Government’s competition for proposals to create ten Freeports across the UK came to a close earlier this month with an announcement of the successful locations expected soon. Freeports are areas within a country that are outside its customs territory. Goods coming into the country via Freeports are exempt from paying tariffs until they enter the mainland or are shipped to another country. In the UK Freeports model[1] these areas may also be subject to special regulatory, tax, or subsidy rules. Such features may make the terms Enterprise Zone, Special Economic Zone or, the more general, Free Trade Zone more appropriate. The full details of all bids have not been published but summary reports indicate wide variety of business cases. […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:11:59+01:0025 February 2021|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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