About Michael Gasiorek

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So far Michael Gasiorek has created 90 blog entries.

Indicative votes – the economics behind the options

3 April 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Understandably the politics surrounding the UK’s exit from the EU are dominating current discussions. But the economics of the options still matter, and it is not always evident how well the core economic issues are understood. In the light of the Government’s ‘approach’ to Labour to find a consensus and in the light of the indicative votes, the aim of this blog is to clearly outline the economic issues and summarise the likely consequences associated with two of the current (indicative) options. […]

By , |2025-07-18T11:48:10+01:003 April 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment
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BP 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs

Download Briefing Paper 29 Briefing Paper 29 – March 2019 Michael Gasiorek and Julia Magntorn Garrett Key points Introduction Understanding the proposed ‘No Deal’ tariffs Where are the big changes? Modelling the impact of the ‘No Deal’ tariffs Conclusion Footnotes Key points To help mitigate some of the effects of ‘No Deal’ the UK has proposed to liberalise most MFN tariffs to zero. In order to comply with WTO rules, in a ‘No Deal’ scenario these new tariffs would apply to trade with the EU and with non-EU countries. The share of the UK’s imports that would be tariff-free under the Government’s proposed MFN tariffs, compared with the UK’s current situation, represents a substantial liberalisation with regard to non-EU imports. This would reduce the EU’s competitive advantage in exporting to the UK, and would encourage more imports from non-EU countries. However, it is not only tariffs that matter in driving trade flows. Proximity to the UK market, especially for perishable goods, may also be an important factor, as well as conformity with regulations. Once we take into account the share of UK trade with the EU, all of which is currently tariff-free, the change in tariffs will impact [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:43:20+00:0025 March 2019|Comments Off on BP 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs
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What should we make of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs?

14 March 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Key points: Around 72% of UK’s MFN tariff lines will see reduced protection. The UK’s average MFN tariff is reduced significantly, from around 7.7% to 0.7%; however this does little to increase the share of duty-free imports. The UK’s MFN tariff proposal will reduce tariffs on many products imported from countries currently trading on WTO terms, but increase them on imports from the EU. Following the first defeat of the Withdrawal Bill in Parliament, and prior to yesterday’s vote on a ‘No Deal’ alternative, the Government published the temporary tariff schedule it proposes to apply in the event of a no deal. As with most things Brexit, this is complicated to unpick, especially as some of the listed items are simply asterisked, and the details on these need to be found in another (1400 page) document! […]

By , , |2025-07-18T11:50:38+01:0014 March 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|7 Comments
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Briefing Paper 29 – DEAL OR ‘NO DEAL’? THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE UK’S ‘NO DEAL’ TARIFFS

This paper assesses the possible consequences of the Government’s proposed No Deal tariff regime. While there have been numerous previous assessments of the economic impact of a ‘No Deal’, the tariff proposal by the UK Government provides a new set of tariffs which have not been assessed in the existing empirical literature. In this briefing paper, the authors explain carefully the Government’s proposals and identify how much of UK trade would be affected by the changes in tariffs in a ‘No Deal’ scenario and provide an empirical assessment of the scale of the economic challenge which could face UK industries in the event of ‘No Deal’. They find that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will pose a significant challenge to the UK economy with a negative impact on output, exports and imports driven largely by the increased cost of trading with the EU. The results highlight that in the event of ‘No Deal’ the Government’s room for policy manoeuvre is somewhat limited. Read Briefing Paper 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs

By , |2024-11-20T13:21:26+00:001 March 2019|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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A spoonful of sugar

13 February 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Currently, there is much focus on the politics of getting some version of the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. This requires a political resolution to the inclusion of the ‘backstop’ in the Withdrawal Agreement. The strategy appears to be to come up with “alternative arrangements” which will be acceptable to the UK Parliament and to which the EU can agree. A spoonful of sugar might help the medicine go down. However, even if this can be achieved the fundamental issue will not have been resolved.   […]

By |2025-07-18T12:02:37+01:0013 February 2019|UK- EU|4 Comments
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It’s not just about the EU…

12 February 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. As a member of the EU, the UK is party to around 40 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with more than 70 countries. Over the last two years or so, the Government has stated that it intends to roll over, or more formally, ‘replicate’ these agreements. Indeed, in 2017 Liam Fox claimed that ”we’ll have up to 40 ready for one second after midnight in March 2019”. However, in recent weeks it has become clear that this is not going to happen,[1] and that at best there will only be a very small number of agreements replicated.[2] In this blog, we give some summary statistics outlining why this matters economically and which sectors are most vulnerable. We also discuss why, practically, very few agreements can be replicated by the current withdrawal date. […]

By , |2025-07-18T12:05:13+01:0012 February 2019|UK- EU|0 Comments
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What should we make of the Government’s Brexit estimates?

30 November 2018 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, Dr Michael Gasiorek, a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Peter Holmes, Reader in  Economics at the University of Sussex both fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. We welcome the Government’s estimates of the economic consequences of alternative Brexits. They are way overdue. The modelling was very competently done. But the assumptions made tended to favour the Government’s preferred position over other alternatives. On Tuesday, the UK Government released a set of cross-Departmental estimates of the possible economic costs of different Brexit options. They were based on the Government’s own modelling, which uses a technique known as a Computable General Equilibrium modelling and is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) consortium’s world model and dataset. The aim is to model (very approximately) the important linkages in an economy over a medium to long-term horizon and to assess the possible impact of changes in trade policy on the economy. (Short-term modelling, over a five year period, was simultaneously released by the Bank of England, but we do not discuss it here). The modelling approach is relatively [...]

By , , |2025-07-18T13:36:57+01:0030 November 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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Here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten us into

17 October 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. UK-EU negotiations are in a mess. There appears to be a genuine impasse, where the stumbling block is the issue of no border in Ireland. The EU has indicated it is for the UK to make a better offer, while the UK is arguing that the EU needs to be more reasonable.  Both are right, if they want to avoid ‘no deal’. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:38:39+01:0017 October 2018|UK- EU|5 Comments
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“Mamma Mia – here we go again” Equivalence for goods regulation in the Chequers proposal

3 August 2018 Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law, Dr Peter Holmes is a reader in Economics and Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex.  They are all fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.   In describing the future regulatory relationship between the EU and UK, the recent UK White Paper proposes the notion of ‘equivalence’ in some areas. This may seem like a mere technical requirement, but equivalence is a loaded word in trade policy circles, and the UK government’s reliance on it bears further scrutiny. With respect to goods, ‘equivalence’ shows up in two main ways. First, the UK states that it will maintain equivalence (rather than exact harmonisation with EU regulation) for some food policy rules in the context of a […]

By , , |2025-07-18T13:42:52+01:003 August 2018|UK- EU|6 Comments
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BP 21 – FISHING IN DEEP WATERS

Download Briefing Paper 21 Briefing Paper 21 – July 2018 Michael Gasiorek and Suzannah Walmsley Key Points Introduction Current policy environment UK Fisheries White Paper, July 2018 Understanding the pattern of UK trade in fish Different Brexit scenarios Aggregate results Results by species Conclusion Key Points Leaving the EU will involve some possible combination of changes in tariffs, non-tariff measures, and also the amount of fish quotas that can be caught by the UK and the EU. The UK is looking to renegotiate the share of quotas but the EU fishing industry is keen to maintain the existing distribution of quota. With regards to the changes in tariff and non-tariff measures, all the experiments lead to a decline in UK output, and the biggest decline occurs in the unilateral free trade scenario. A ‘no deal’ Brexit with no changes in quotas for the UK leads to declines in output, exports, and imports as a result of increasing tariffs and non-tariff measures with the important EU market. Adjustment in quotas has a substantial positive impact on UK output and exports but a negative impact on EU fishing. Even if the UK unilaterally forced the issue and demanded quota changes, almost [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:50:44+00:0024 July 2018|Comments Off on BP 21 – FISHING IN DEEP WATERS
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