About Michael Gasiorek

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So far Michael Gasiorek has created 90 blog entries.

BP 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?

Download Briefing Paper Briefing Paper 20 – July 2018 Marc Busch, Michael Gasiorek, Peter Holmes, J. Brad Jensen, Rod Ludema, Emily Lydgate, Anna Maria Mayda, Pietra Rivoli, Jim Rollo, Stephen Weymouth, Rorden Wilkinson and L. Alan Winters Key points Introduction Public support for a US-UK trade agreement What is the economic case for a US-UK trade agreement? So, do the data suggest an agreement is worth pursuing? The regulatory elements of a US-UK agreement: “A TTIP for Two”? Conclusion Endnotes Key points There is public support for a US-UK trade agreement, but this sits alongside worries about existing trade agreements, particularly over NAFTA in the US, and is contingent on the kind of regulatory framework pursued. Seeking an agreement allows both countries to present themselves outwardly as pursuing a sovereign policy in their own best interests as well as constructive members of a liberal world trading order. Any meaningful agreement (economically as opposed to politically) will need to deal with the barriers to trade in services, and the regulatory barriers within specific manufacturing sectors. Given the different approaches to regulation, this may be challenging. Among the most important of challenges in negotiating a US-UK trade agreement will be [...]

By , , , , , , , , , , , |2025-12-17T16:03:41+00:0012 July 2018|Comments Off on BP 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?
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Does the Chequers Agreement provide any steps to Brexit heaven?

9 July 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Managing Director of InterAnalysis. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO. In good part, the answer depends on the extent to which this agreement moves on from the Government’s previous position, is feasible, is credible, and is acceptable to the EU. It also depends on whether it will be acceptable to the Conservative party, which the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson throw into serious doubt. In this blog, I focus on one aspect of this –  the extent to which the “facilitated customs arrangement” (FCA), which is central to the agreement notionally reached at Chequers, is substantively different from the previous idea of a “New Customs Partnership” (NCP). […]

By |2025-07-18T13:46:35+01:0010 July 2018|UK- EU|0 Comments
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Briefing Paper 21 – FISHING IN DEEP WATERS

Leaving the EU will involve some possible combination of changes in tariffs, non-tariff measures, and also the amount of fish quotas that can be caught by the UK and the EU. The aim of the Briefing Paper is to detail the policy environment, and the policy considerations facing the UK government in the Brexit negotiations. Secondly, it provides an empirical assessment of what the impact on leaving the EU might be on the seafood industry. As the nature of the UK’s future trade relations with the EU are still uncertain, this paper explores several simulations which aim, broadly speaking, to capture the key variants of Brexit that appear to be under discussion. Read Briefing Paper 21 – Fishing in deep waters

By , |2024-11-20T13:25:43+00:002 July 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Briefing Paper 20 – THE FUTURE OF US-UK TRADE: WHAT CASE FOR A BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT?

Both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May have stated their keenness to negotiate and agree the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement after Brexit. This briefing paper looks at what the key issues are likely to be and what a transatlantic agreement may, or may not, comprise. First, we explore the extent to which a trade agreement between the US and the UK would have popular support at a time when debate about trade on both sides of the Atlantic is contested. Second, we consider what the benefits of such an agreement might be by considering the aggregate economic case. Finally, we probe where problems and tensions may lie, focusing primarily on the regulatory aspects of a transatlantic commercial tie-up. Read Briefing Paper 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?

By , , , , , , , , , , , |2024-11-20T13:26:17+00:001 July 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Why the Customs Partnership is problematic

17 May 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Dr Peter Holmes is Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. They are both Fellows of the UKTPO and Managing Director and Director of InterAnalysis respectively.  The government’s two preferred options for post-Brexit trade with the EU are “Maximum Facilitation” whereby technological solutions are used to simplify trade procedures, and a so-called “New Customs Partnership”. This blog discusses the implications of the New Customs Partnership (NCP) scheme. It must be borne in mind that the EU has so far rejected both and that in fact the degree of detail currently provided by the Government on either is so slight that we cannot be sure what is proposed. It is also arguable that they are not alternatives since under any scenario the government is keen to ensure the maximum simplification of procedures in order for trade to be ‘as frictionless as possible’. Even if they were viable, both the NCP and the Max Fac proposals involve significant trade-offs – namely that they involve firms in expensive set-up costs in order to be able to reduce transactions costs. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:50:48+01:0017 May 2018|UK- EU|2 Comments
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Backstop v2: A solution to trade with the EU post-Brexit

2 May 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Managing Director of InterAnalysis. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO. The red lines laid down by the UK government, and those laid down by the EU, together with the agreement that there will be no ‘hard’ border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are mutually incompatible. This was discussed in some detail in our March 2018 Briefing Paper UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit: binding constraints and impossible solutions. In that Briefing Paper, we concluded that: “The current set of the UK government’s overlapping conditions or constraints cannot be reconciled. The solution space appears to be null. The only way of resolving this is to drop and/or relax at least one or more of the conditions.” […]

By |2025-07-18T13:51:10+01:002 May 2018|UK - Non EU|7 Comments
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The irreconcilability of the UK Government’s objectives for Brexit

2 March 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and  Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO. There is much talk about the UK not being able to “cherry-pick” and “have its cake and eat it” with regards to post-Brexit trade policy with the EU. There are a couple of issues here. First, all EU agreements are different and hence by definition bespoke. Cherries are picked by both sides. This will also be true of a future UK-EU agreement. The question, therefore, really is to do with the extent to which the EU will grant the UK a bespoke deal in serious and substantive ways. The second issue is that it is far from clear that the UK government currently knows what all the ingredients are and what the recipe is for the cake it is hoping to share with the EU. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:57:11+01:002 March 2018|UK- EU|0 Comments
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BP 17 – UK–EU trade relations post Brexit: binding constraints and impossible solutions

Briefing Paper 17 – March 2018 Download Briefing Paper Michael Gasiorek Key points Setting the scene How might it be possible to square the circle? Route 1 Route 2 Ways forward? Key points The UK Government’s stated objectives include independence with regard to trade policy, regulatory policy and migration, as well as no hard border in Ireland. The latter is also a condition for the EU. In addition, the UK government seeks to maintain as much access to the Single Market as possible, while leaving the Single Market. These conditions cannot all be reconciled. All EU agreements are different and hence by definition bespoke. This will also be true of a future UK-EU agreement. The issues are over what is to be included and excluded, and how many of the above conditions the UK government will be forced to drop and/or relax. There is a real and manifest difference in the desirability of the UK remaining part of the current EU Customs Union, and signing a new comprehensive customs union with the EU. The latter option is far less desirable unless it has equivalent effect bilaterally. A key issue is the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Any [...]

By |2025-12-17T16:26:23+00:001 March 2018|Comments Off on BP 17 – UK–EU trade relations post Brexit: binding constraints and impossible solutions
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Briefing Paper 17 – UK–EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: BINDING CONSTRAINTS AND IMPOSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

There is much discussion about what the UK government wants in terms of the post-transition relations between the UK and the EU, and the Labour party has now also provided a little bit more clarity on its position. However, to what extent are the different UK-EU Brexit options achievable? Dr Michael Gasiorek explores two key concerns. The first concerns the issue of the compatibility or not of the different UK-EU Brexit options, with the issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The second issue concerns the subtleties of the difference between being in “the” EU Customs Union, in comparison to being in “a” customs union with the EU. While it might appear a small difference, in practices the differences may be substantial.The aim of this briefing paper is to consider what difference these developments make, to examine under what circumstances might the UK governments current position on future arrangements with the EU be possible (or not), and to offer some recommendations and reflections for the way forward. Read Briefing Paper 17 – UK–EU trade relations post Brexit: binding constraints and impossible solutions

By |2024-11-20T13:27:25+00:001 March 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Economists and crystal balls

23 February 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and  Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO. Before and since the Brexit referendum there have been numerous criticisms made of economic models, of the views of ‘experts’ and the supposed inaccuracy of their forecasts.[1] But these critiques are mostly based on misunderstandings, so, as an economist and long-time modeller, I want to explain the value – and the limitations – of modelling.  Models are indeed extremely useful and should be used to help inform public policy – but you need to use them appropriately. Myth buster: “Models are not designed to provide accurate predictions / forecasts of future reality”. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:57:35+01:0023 February 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment
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