All roads lead to Geneva: Insights from MC14

From 26 March to the early hours of 30 March 2026, ministers from WTO Members met in Yaoundé, Cameroon, for the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference. The goal was to review the past two years of negotiations and deliver outcomes on the MC14 agenda. Coined the Reform Ministerial, most discussions focused on the WTO's future amidst existing challenges and opportunities. And because it was held in an African country, the MC14 strongly emphasised development-related issues. However, the current geopolitical context affected expectations for MC14, resulting in broad and vague ministerial documents and declarations. WTO negotiations depend on what WTO Members can agree on by consensus. Conflicting interests and diverging interpretations of even cornerstone rules, such as the most-favoured-nation (MFN) principle, made significant progress difficult. MC 14 outcomes MC14 outcomes were reached in advance and only formalised in Yaoundé. WTO Members agreed to continue negotiating fisheries subsidies, with a goal to achieve a comprehensive Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS2) during MC15. Since AFS1 entered into force on 15 September 2025, Members have until September 2029 to adopt AFS2. Failure to do so will result in the current agreement being terminated (unless the General Council decides otherwise). Ministers also adopted two decisions on [...]

By |2026-03-31T14:30:54+01:0031 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|1 Comment

Critical Minerals as an Observatory for Evolving Forms of Trade Cooperation

Critical minerals have captured the world’s attention as constituting a modern issue straddling matters of security, sovereignty, industry, and sustainability. Characterized by concentration in production and supply chains, they are imperative for energy transition industries and manufacturing of technology and defence equipment. For resource-hungry economies such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, securing resilient and sustainable critical minerals supply chains is key to resolving anxieties about perceived Chinese weaponization of supply chains, and ensuring their economic security and national security. For resource-rich developing countries across Asia, Africa, and South America (e.g. Chile), the priority lies in not only securing fair prices, but also leveraging mineral endowments to support domestic industrialization, economic diversification, and escape primary commodity dependence. In result, we see the re-emergence of an age-old tension that has shaped both the foundations and evolution of global trade. Trade rules conceptualized during the interwar period and institutionalized in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) were grounded in securing access to raw materials and markets. The references to the “resources of the world” (Preamble, First Recital) and “equitable share of the international supply of products” (Article XX(j)), and rules prohibiting the use of quantitative restrictions (Article XI), also reflect this commitment to the free exchange [...]

By |2026-03-25T15:59:28+00:0025 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Alignment with limits and safeguards: EFRA’s key recommendations for a UK-EU SPS Agreement

The House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee (EFRA) has recently published a report responding to the political commitment made at the May 2025 UK–EU Summit to negotiate a common sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) area, with an ambition to conclude negotiations by early 2027. Entitled ‘UK–EU agritrade: making an SPS agreement work’, the report sets out recommendations aimed at ensuring that any future SPS framework is economically beneficial, constitutionally accountable and operationally workable. At its core, the report accepts the economic case for closer regulatory cooperation with the European Union. It recognises the potential benefits of reducing border friction, supporting supply chain resilience and strengthening food security. However, it does not endorse alignment without qualification. Rather, the Committee advances what might be described as an approach of alignment, with limits and safeguards: supporting the negotiation of a common SPS area while seeking targeted exemptions in sensitive areas; calling for robust parliamentary oversight; and insisting on mechanisms to ensure that UK scientific evidence and domestic policy choices are properly reflected in future regulatory developments. Crucially, as a precondition for achieving these safeguards, the Committee urges that the scope of the negotiations is clearly defined and published at an early [...]

By |2026-02-20T17:06:11+00:0020 February 2026|Blog, UK- EU|0 Comments

A beginner’s guide to economic security: What it means for trade

The return of President Trump to the White House has brought renewed attention to the relationship between trade and national security. This situation raises questions about how governments should respond to increasing pressure to protect economic security while upholding an open and rules-based trading system. What is economic security? The concept of economic security has evolved over the years, reflecting shifting global and domestic circumstances since the end of World War II. Different governments frame economic security risks and threats in various ways, which means there is no universally accepted definition. However, in terms of values, it broadly refers to the absence of a threat of severe deprivation of economic welfare. Rather than providing a single, rigid definition, the EU and Japan have adopted a principle-based approach. This allows them to remain responsive to the risks generated by a rapidly evolving economic, technological, and geopolitical landscape. For example, Japan has established three core principles of economic security: self-sufficiency, indispensability, and safeguarding the rules-based international system. In terms of the instruments, it refers to a nation’s framework to maintain national autonomy and economic resilience against risks and threats. This includes strategies and policies that aim to protect fundamental economic functions, strategic [...]

By |2026-01-07T08:57:01+00:007 January 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Stroking a bear to get half a sandwich

The UK and the US announced the first bilateral post-Reciprocal Tariffs deal on 8 May, named the 'U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal' (henceforth the US-UK EPD). The document published yesterday draws out the contours of this EPD, alongside some concrete initial proposals for reciprocal preferential market access for selected goods. Notwithstanding the negotiations starting immediately, this arrangement can be called off at any time, simply by the two parties giving each other written notice. Besides its symbolic and diplomatic relevance, what is the value of this emerging deal for the UK? This is not a Free Trade Agreement. At first glance, it looks like a quid-pro-quo “mini-deal” of limited economic relevance that the US strong-armed the UK into accepting under the threat of tariffs. The UK is getting some respite from Trump’s tariffs in the (important) car and the (strategic) steel and aluminium sectors, in exchange for lowering tariffs on some agricultural products such as ethanol and beef, the latter on a reciprocal basis. But a closer reading of the ‘General Terms document’ suggests that it is more than this, and a lot worse. First, as stated on page 1 of the text, the arrangement that the US and the UK [...]

From ‘efficient’ to ‘resilient’ supply chains, and beyond

Global supply chains are in the midst of a fundamental paradigm shift. From the late 1970s to the 2000s, many countries embraced economic interdependence through trade liberalisation and promoted a free market economy with minimal government intervention. From the global financial crisis in 2008 to the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2023), governments have been shifting towards a more managed approach to trade. This trend has become more pronounced, as the world’s power balance changes, due to the rise of China, emerging technologies impact security and economy, and the sustainable global agenda becomes important for the world’s future in the 21st century. Highly industrialised economies, which previously focussed on liberalising trade through the WTO and through free trade agreements (FTAs), are shifting to more neo mercantilist approaches. They are pursuing resilient supply chain policies and measures to support climate change, national security concerns and other non-trade objectives (e.g. human rights). On top of that, ‘America first’ protectionism under the incoming US Trump administration will cast new challenges to its trade partners - including its resilient supply chain allies. What are the implications for trade policy of this paradigm shift from efficient supply chains to resilient chains and the return of US unilateralism? Major [...]

By , |2024-12-18T12:44:51+00:0018 December 2024|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

The UK in a World of Green Industrial Strategies

13 March 2023 Emily Lydgate is Reader (Senior Associate Professor) in Environmental Law at University of Sussex School of Law, Politics and Sociology and Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory The UKTPO is pleased to re-publish this TaPP Network Workshop Summary, an output of a TaPP workshop in January with speakers Geraldo Vidigal (University of Amsterdam), Emily Lydgate (UKTPO/CITP), Ilaria Espa (USI/WTI), and Greg Messenger (TaPP/University of Bristol). Rather than a blog, this note summarises views of panel participants and the authors. It provides useful insights on the latest developments in this area and policy recommendations for the UK in navigating the new subsidies race between the US and the EU. […]

By |2025-01-29T15:39:36+00:0013 March 2023|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Russian MFN suspension: Implications for UK trade

11 March 2022 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School President Biden announced today that the US, the EU, and the G7 countries (which includes the UK) will be suspending Russia’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status at the World Trade Organization (WTO). In this blog we look at what this actually means for the UK and what the potential trade implications are for the UK. […]

By |2025-07-18T09:44:20+01:0011 March 2022|UK - Non EU|2 Comments

WTO reform: Plurilateral Agreements

13 January 2022 L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of UK Trade Policy Observatory and Bernard Hoekman is Professor of Global Economics, European University Institute and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory It is widely accepted that international economic relations depend upon a smoothly functioning multilateral trading system. That trading system, institutionally underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO), can both stimulate economic activity and help to promote international cooperation in spheres such as climate change and migration. However, the WTO is becoming less relevant to a world in which services account for a growing share of trade, interest in environmental regulation (notably on CO2 emissions) is growing, and digital technology is reshaping our lives. These issues impinge directly on international trade and thus fall within the broad remit of international rulemaking in the WTO. However, decision making in the WTO typically requires consensus from all the Members, which is difficult to achieve when Members have different ideas about what the appropriate rules for dealing with such challenges are. Thus, not only has it become difficult for countries to agree on how to move forward, but these differences are creating new tensions in the global [...]

By |2025-07-18T09:52:44+01:0013 January 2022|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

China and the WTO

10 December 2021 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex and L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of UKTPO China acceded to the World Trade Organisation twenty years ago. Yet despite being a member of the international trading club for two decades, China’s ‘role’ in the trading system continues to generate controversy  across a range of areas such as the alleged support to state-owned enterprises boosting their international competitiveness, restrictions on foreign direct investment in China and the ineffective intellectual property protection in China. In addition, and sometimes conflated with trade, there are technology-related security concerns and human rights abuses, notably with regard to the Uyghurs. The Covid-19 pandemic has also raised worries in some quarters about the vulnerability of supply chains, including over-reliance on particular suppliers such as China in critical sectors. […]

By , |2025-07-18T09:53:34+01:0011 December 2021|UK - Non EU|0 Comments
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