About Peter Holmes

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

Softer Brexit, Softer Irish border?

8 December 2017 Jim Rollo is Deputy Director of UKTPO, Emeritus Professor of European Economics at the University of Sussex and Associate Fellow, Chatham House. Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. The agreement to proceed to the next phase of  Brexit talks is a step forward on the road to a softer Brexit. But it does not offer a definitive solution to the status of the Irish border, which will depend on the nature of the final agreement on the UK-EU trade relationship. At best, it represents an exercise in constructive ambiguity designed to allow the shape and length of any interim agreement, which will help determine the shape of the long-term agreement and, in turn, will be the basis of any permanent solution to the status of the Irish land border with Northern Ireland. […]

By , |2025-09-05T11:53:06+01:008 December 2017|UK- EU|2 Comments
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Briefing Paper 13 – GRANDFATHERING: WHAT APPEARS BILATERAL IS TRILATERAL

Rolling over the 37 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with more than 60 countries that the UK currently has through the EU will be a monumentally complicated task and one that needs to be completed by March 2019. This Briefing Paper outlines why it may not be easy to get agreement on grandfathering with the FTA partner countries, and why even if agreement could be reached it is unlikely that trade will continue on the same basis as previously. A key point which emerges is that with regard to several key issues – Rules of Origin (RoOs), Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses, mutual recognition, and tariff-rate quotas – grandfathering the agreements is unlikely to happen without some engagement or negotiation with the EU. Hence what you might think is a bilateral issue between the UK and a given FTA partner, becomes a trilateral issue which also involves the EU. Read Briefing Paper 13 – GRANDFATHERING: WHAT APPEARS BILATERAL IS TRILATERAL

By , |2024-11-20T13:31:19+00:001 December 2017|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Briefing Paper 12 – TRADE AND CONSUMERS AFTER BREXIT

Consumers face many challenges post-Brexit. The new UK Trade White Paper published by the Department for International Trade in October 2017 has stated that it will give a major priority to consumers, but details remain to be spelled out. Increasing scepticism about free trade puts at risk the classic gains from trade – lower prices and better choice – and gives rise to fears of job losses from increased imports. On the other hand, some fear that Brexit – and potential trade agreements with third countries – will weaken or undermine consumer protection. In the addition to these substantive issues there are procedural questions too – how is consumer interest represented? This briefing paper addresses these issues of trade policy and consumer interests. Read Briefing Paper 12 – TRADE AND CONSUMERS AFTER BREXIT  

By |2024-11-20T13:31:38+00:003 November 2017|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Grandfathering Free Trade Agreements and Rules of Origin: What might appear bilateral is in fact trilateral!

  27 September 2017 Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics and Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and  Managing Director of InterAnalysis respectively. Both are Fellows of the UKTPO. With respect to the post-Brexit period, the UK needs to sort out its trade relationships not just with the EU but also with non-EU countries. In regard to the EU, Mrs May’s stated objective is for an “implementation” period during which “access to one another’s markets should continue on current terms”,  such that “businesses and public services should only have to plan for one set of changes in the relationship between the UK and the EU”.  However, for this to be possible, the UK will also have to deal with the relationship with non-EU countries.  In this blog, we focus on an important aspect of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) which centres around something which is a bit technical and often not well understood – called “Rules of Origin” (RoOs).[1] […]

By , |2025-07-18T14:07:38+01:0027 September 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|15 Comments
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Transition Made Easy

26 September 2017, L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO, Erika Szyszczak is a Professor of Law at the University of Sussex, independent ADR Mediator and a Fellow of the UKTPO. Now it’s official. More than a year after the UKTPO said that it would be necessary (see Briefing Paper 2 and NIER paper), the Prime Minister has announced that the UK wants a transitional deal that preserves the status quo. Namely, membership of the Single market, a customs union with the EU, free mobility of labour, jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), budget payments and no external trade deals. Sad to say, this seems like progress. Despite the language and some of the press commentary, Britain is not ‘opting for’, still less ‘agreeing to’, a transitional deal; it is asking for one in the negotiations. The Florence speech still uses the language of an ‘implementation period’. This implies that between now and 2019 the UK can both negotiate a final settlement to be implemented after the transition and the transition itself.  But the Prime Minister has made no [...]

By , , |2025-07-18T14:08:18+01:0026 September 2017|UK- EU|5 Comments
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Government proposals on goods trade only cover first few weeks after Brexit

23 August 2017 Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO The government’s new paper  “Continuity in the availability of goods for the EU and the UK – a position paper“ acknowledges the problems that will be created by a hard Brexit in which there is a disruption in the systems for verifying compliance with mandatory standards. The problem is that its substantive proposals deal with only the most immediate disruptions in the sale of goods that are already in the supply chain at the moment of Brexit. The official description acknowledges this: “This paper outlines the UK’s position on continuity in the availability of goods in UK and EU markets at the point of EU exit” (my italics). Yet, the key requirement for the British economy is that there needs to be a permanent system in place for ensuring that UK product inspection systems are recognised by the EU for goods made after Brexit. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:09:06+01:0023 August 2017|UK- EU|3 Comments
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The UK’s plan for post-Brexit customs is more hopeful than realistic

16 August 2017 Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO The UK government has just issued its official position paper on the issue of the customs union and Brexit. It emphasises a desire for the “most frictionless trade possible in goods between the UK and the EU” and proposes two ways of achieving this in the long term, while making it clear that the UK will leave the EU’s customs union when it leaves the EU. The first option it proposes is a “streamlined customs arrangement” which sounds like a form of free trade agreement (but there is no mention of this as an aim). It involves keeping in place a number of the existing customs arrangements and using (untested) electronic technology to ensure the smooth processing of all documentation. The stated aim is to keep border arrangements as close as possible to what they are now to maintain continuity for businesses. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:10:11+01:0016 August 2017|UK- EU|2 Comments
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UK government’s approach to trade policy towards developing countries needs further development

27 June 2017 Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO The UK government’s new approach to trade policy towards developing countries has just been released in a DFID document that has been widely commented on.  The government’s proposals are welcome, but yet they are not quite as generous as they may seem. A Bloomberg piece says, optimistically: “The government promises improved access to U.K. markets for the world’s poorest countries”. However the only concrete promise is that “ around 48 countries across the globe, from Bangladesh to Sierra Leone, Haiti and Ethiopia will continue to benefit from duty-free exports into the UK on all goods other than arms and ammunition, known as ‘everything but arms.” In other words, the UK pledges to maintain existing arrangements for the poorest countries currently benefiting from the EU’s Everything but Arms deal (EBA). This amounts to simply maintaining the status quo for this group and is not actually an improvement. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:12:27+01:0027 June 2017|UK - Non EU|1 Comment
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Reaction to PM Theresa May’s Brexit speech

17 January 2017 Dr Peter Holmes (Reader in Economics and member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex), reacts to Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech on negotiating objectives for exiting the EU. The speech essentially confirms what we knew already, that sticking to the government’s red lines on the European Court of Justice and free movement would make joining the European Economic Area impossible and so we must leave the single market. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:20:57+01:0017 January 2017|UK- EU|0 Comments
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A special deal for the car industry: how could it work?

16 November 2016 At the end of last month, Nissan confirmed a major investment in its Sunderland site following support and assurances from Teresa May. This news was received with much speculation as to what the “support and assurances” of the British government could be. Whilst the details are yet to emerge from Number 10, Dr Peter Holmes reveals different options of what a special post-Brexit deal for Nissan, and the car industry generally, could be.  […]

By |2025-07-18T14:52:04+01:0016 November 2016|UK- EU|0 Comments
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