About Peter Holmes

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

How can the UK persuade the EU to accept an all-UK backstop?

11 June 2018 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics and Dr Peter Holmes is Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. They are both Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. On June 7, after prolonged internal discussion, the UK government published its paper proposing the extension to the whole UK of the ‘backstop’ provision in the EU draft withdrawal agreement to incorporate Northern Ireland (NI) into the EU’s customs territory until another solution can be found for the problem of the Irish border. The UK is unenthusiastic about the backstop and hopes it will not be needed, but wants any backstop to cover the whole UK, so as to avoid the need for border inspections of trade between NI and the rest of the UK (GB). Perhaps surprisingly, the government paper does not address the fact that the EU’s proposal is for NI to be included in a ‘common regulatory area’ as well as in a de facto customs union: any backstop needs to deal with regulation as well as customs. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:48:33+01:0011 June 2018|UK- EU|11 Comments
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Why the Customs Partnership is problematic

17 May 2018 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Dr Peter Holmes is Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. They are both Fellows of the UKTPO and Managing Director and Director of InterAnalysis respectively.  The government’s two preferred options for post-Brexit trade with the EU are “Maximum Facilitation” whereby technological solutions are used to simplify trade procedures, and a so-called “New Customs Partnership”. This blog discusses the implications of the New Customs Partnership (NCP) scheme. It must be borne in mind that the EU has so far rejected both and that in fact the degree of detail currently provided by the Government on either is so slight that we cannot be sure what is proposed. It is also arguable that they are not alternatives since under any scenario the government is keen to ensure the maximum simplification of procedures in order for trade to be ‘as frictionless as possible’. Even if they were viable, both the NCP and the Max Fac proposals involve significant trade-offs – namely that they involve firms in expensive set-up costs in order to be able to reduce transactions costs. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:50:48+01:0017 May 2018|UK- EU|2 Comments
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A Customs Union with the EU?

19 April 2018 Jim Rollo is Deputy Director of UKTPO, Emeritus Professor of European Economics at the University of Sussex and Associate Fellow, Chatham House. Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. On Wednesday this week, the House of Lords voted that after Brexit a customs union with the EU should not be ruled out. If it remains in the legislation, it would require the government to submit a report to Parliament on the Customs Union option. This blog discusses some of the key issues that would need to be considered in such a report. […]

By , |2025-09-05T12:19:18+01:0019 April 2018|UK- EU|6 Comments
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BP 5 – UK-EU Trade Relations Post Brexit: Too Many Red Lines?

Briefing Paper 5 – November 2016 Download Briefing Paper Michael Gasiorek, Peter Holmes and Jim Rollo Key Points Introduction What Agreement Would Respect the UK’s Red Lines? How do the Options Stack Up? So What is Really Feasible? Reflections on the Political Economy of a UK/EU-27 Agreement Timing and Transition Arrangements Can the Red Lines be Relaxed? If So, Which? Conclusion: is ‘Hard Brexit’ Inevitable? Glossary […]

By , , |2025-12-17T16:25:10+00:0014 February 2018|Comments Off on BP 5 – UK-EU Trade Relations Post Brexit: Too Many Red Lines?
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BP 12 – Trade and Consumers After Brexit

Briefing Paper 12 – November 2017 Download Briefing Paper Peter Holmes Summary The Current Challenge for Consumers Trade Impact: Low Prices Versus Threatened Jobs? Producer Interests: Anti-Dumping Regulatory Impacts Conclusion Further Information […]

By |2025-12-17T16:19:32+00:0013 February 2018|Comments Off on BP 12 – Trade and Consumers After Brexit
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BP 10 – Can a UK-EU Free Trade Area Preserve the Benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union in some Sectors?

Briefing Paper 10 – September 2017 Download Briefing Paper Emily Lydgate and L Alan Winters Key Points Introduction Goods: WTO Rules and Practice Customs-Union-Like Access? Single Market-Like Access? Would UK-EU MRAs on Goods be Compatible with WTO Obligations? Services – WTO Rules and Practice GATS and Mutual Recognition Assessing the GATS Compliance of a UK-EU EIA Conclusion References Further Information […]

By , |2025-12-12T11:01:08+00:0013 February 2018|Comments Off on BP 10 – Can a UK-EU Free Trade Area Preserve the Benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union in some Sectors?
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BP 15 – Certificates and Rules of Origin: The Experience of UK Firms

Briefing Paper 15 – January 2018 Download Briefing Paper Peter Holmes and Nick Jacob Key Points Introduction Rules of Origin: A Primer Origin After Brexit Interviews with UK Firms Why Do Firms Use Preferential COs? What are the (Additional) Benefits of Preferential COs? Why Do Firms Use Non-Preferential COs? Approved Exporters What are the Costs and Challenges of Claiming Origin? Firm Interviews: Conclusions International Trade Survey Survey: Key Findings Conclusion Appendix Further Information Key Points Exporters are generally required to prove the origin of goods — as defined by agreed Rules of Origin — to customs authorities. This is likely to require more time from business after Brexit. While most academic studies have generally found high costs of compliance associated with Rules of Origin in Free Trade Agreements, our study suggests compliance is not as costly for firms as previously thought. The current option of Certificates of Origin supplied by Chambers of Commerce is tried and tested and offers a private-sector solution for firms to be assisted in ensuring compliance with Rules of Origin. Certificates could be used for goods trade under a possible EU-UK Free Trade Agreement post-Brexit, as well as for FTAs with other countries. Post-Brexit, [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:33:41+00:009 February 2018|Comments Off on BP 15 – Certificates and Rules of Origin: The Experience of UK Firms
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Briefing Paper 15 – CERTIFICATES AND RULES OF ORIGIN: THE EXPERIENCE OF UK FIRMS

Rules of Origin (RoOs) are used by importing Customs authorities in the international trading system to determine if a product is considered as sufficiently linked to the exporting country to count as originating there, in order apply preferential or MFN (Most Favoured Nation) rates of tariff to the goods, and to check for quota, anti-dumping and related compliance. The importance of RoOs is due to the fact that duties and restrictions in many cases depend upon the source of imports. Proving origin will be a far bigger issue than it is now for UK business exporting to the EU after Brexit. With all businesses likely to have to rethink their compliance with Rules of Origin post-Brexit, this paper, based on a study carried out with the support of the British Chambers of Commerce, outlines the current Certificates of Origin regime and the options for change after Brexit. Read Briefing Paper 15- CERTIFICATES AND RULES OF ORIGIN: THE EXPERIENCE OF UK FIRMS and the Online Appendix

By , |2024-11-20T13:29:33+00:002 January 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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