Download Briefing Paper 26 Briefing Paper 26 – November 2018 Authors: Ilona Serwicka, L. Alan Winters, Yi Jiang Key points Introduction The South East of England and cross-border trade Demography Sectoral profile, employment patterns and unemployment Analysing the impact of Brexit on those who are working in Hampshire and Sussex The impact of Brexit on those who are working in Hampshire and Sussex The Brexit shock by broad sector Adjustment of Brexit employment shocks for in- and out-commuting The impact of Brexit on those who are resident in Hampshire and Sussex Conclusion Annex: some modelling details Adjustment for in- and out- commuting: Step-by-step explanation References Footnotes Online Appendix Full results KEY POINTS Before the end of this year, British Members of Parliament have been promised a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final text of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration before they are voted on in the European Parliament. MPs have the option to reject these, so a ‘no deal’ Brexit remains a strong possibility. A ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario could be particularly disruptive to the economy of South East England because the region is heavily engaged in cross-border trade. It is ranked first in the UK for goods exports and [...]

Download Briefing Paper 23 Briefing Paper 23 – October 2018 Ilona Serwicka and Nicolo Tamberi Key points Introduction The nature of inward FDI to the UK The industrial profile of FDI What are the most common source countries of investment in the UK? Why do different firms want to invest here? How strong is the UK’s performance in attracting FDI compared to other European countries? The impact of the Brexit vote on inward foreign investment to the UK Political uncertainty: timeline of Brexit FDI in the lead-up to and after Brexit: performance of the ‘real’ and ‘synthetic’ UK FDI cost of Brexit to date across sectors: manufacturing and services Has the Brexit vote disrupted investment by supply chain multinational firms? Conclusion References Note on the Data Online Appendix Key points The UK continues to perform strongly in attracting inward foreign investment, and remains one of the largest recipients of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe and globally. In 2017, there were close to 1,000 greenfield investment projects announced for the UK: these created approximately 60,000 new jobs and were valued at just over US$ 33 billion. The UK’s strength lies in the services sector: the areas with the [...]

Briefing Paper 22 – September 2018 Download Briefing Paper 22 Ingo Borchert and Nicolo Tamberi Key points Introduction Mode 5 services exports by region Foreign services, international integration and exports Conclusion References Footnotes Key Points This Briefing Paper highlights the importance of services inputs—domestic as well as foreign ones—for UK manufacturing exports.  We provide a detailed picture of individual UK regions and nations’ usage of domestic services inputs, and we describe the conducive role of foreign services inputs for export success. As the result of a long-running trend called “servicification” of manufacturing, the value of UK manufacturing exports entails a considerable share of services inputs. In 2017, the value of domestic services inputs into UK manufacturing exports amounted to over £70 billion. By comparison, this is close to all direct exports of financial and insurance services combined.  Hence, any changes in market access conditions abroad, especially in EU-27 destination markets, are likely to have knock-on effects on the demand for services in the UK, and on the jobs associated with the provision of such services. Across individual regions, the South East and London together provide 25% of all services inputs embodied in UK manufacturing exports. Most other regions [...]

Download this Briefing Paper Briefing Paper 14 11 January 2018 Ingo Borchert and Nicolo Tamberi Key Points Introduction The Spatial Distribution of Services Exports Across the UK Trade Relationship with the EU Trade in Embodied Services Growth of Cross-Border Services Exports over Time Conclusion Further Information Principal Data Sources Key Points This Briefing Paper describes the rich pattern of UK regional services exports. The aim is to provide a “heat map” for understanding better how Brexit might affect the services export prospects of UK regions. Reflecting the general concentration of economic activity in and around London, services exports too are spatially concentrated here, as London and the South East accounted for 62% of all services exports in 2015. There is no denying that, depending on the as yet unspecified Brexit conditions, there will be a substantial impact on services exports in the South. There is more to services exports than financial services out of London. In between the South East and the five smallest exporting regions, there is a middle tier of regions encompassing the North West, Scotland, East of England and the South West that contribute significantly to services exports, between them they account for 25% of [...]