Download Briefing Paper 48 Briefing Paper 48 – September 2020 Pierluigi Montalbano, Silvia Nenci, Nicolo Tamberi and L. Alan Winters Key Points Introduction: Brexit and ACP countries Do ACP countries’ incomes depend significantly on UK-EU trade? Cocoa, Brexit and Rules of Origin Conclusion Appendix and References Key Points Brexit will impinge on the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries currently governed by the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiated by the EU. The main reason for this is that UK incomes, and hence demand for ACP products, will be lower than expected over at least the next decade. There is also a concern that the new Brexit-induced frictions on UK-EU trade will reduce the demand for ACP inputs into the goods that the UK and EU trade with each other: so-called “indirect effects” on exports. Our empirical results show that, while these “indirect effects” on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic effects will be tiny in aggregate even in the case of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. This is because the ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs into the products involved in UK-EU trade. In addition, we show that in one industry in which ACP inputs are [...]

Download Briefing Paper 39 Briefing Paper 39 – March 2020 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett, Nicolo Tamberi, L. Alan Winters List of recommendations Introduction Evaluating the effects of the Government’s tariff proposals The UK’s current MFN tariff structure Tariffs with the proposed ‘simplification’ Agricultural tariffs Eliminating tariffs on intermediates Eliminating tariffs on items where there is no domestic production Recommendations Footnotes List of recommendations: Recommendation 1: In the near future, maintain as much as possible the existing structure of applied tariffs. Recommendation 2: Reducing firms’ imported input costs in order to increase their competitiveness is potentially a sensible strategy, but is not without its downsides. Recommendation 3: Decisions regarding the structure of applied tariffs should be made bearing in mind the possible regional consequences of any changes. Recommendation 4: The analysis of the impact of tariff changes on prices and households should be undertaken at a detailed level. Recommendation 5: Before eliminating tariffs on goods not produced within the UK, the impact on developing countries should be evaluated. Recommendation 6: We strongly support the idea of encouraging trade in environmental goods, but suggest that any such policy should not be based on the existing lists. Instead the government [...]