About L. Alan Winters

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So far L. Alan Winters has created 83 blog entries.

Briefing Paper 18 – CAN CETA-PLUS SOLVE THE UK’S SERVICES PROBLEM?

In the search for a framework for a future UK-EU trade relationship, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) has come under the spotlight. To inform the debate surrounding a potential ‘Canada plus’ model for the UK post-Brexit, this briefing paper provides an overview of the extent to which the EU restricts imports of services from Canada under CETA. The authors identify areas where ‘pluses’ may help to preserve existing levels of services trade between the UK and the EU post-Brexit, and discusses whether these are achievable. Further, the extent to which the EU’s commitments in CETA improve on pre-existing regimes is evaluated by comparing the degree of liberalisation in CETA with the EU’s prior commitments in the GATS. Read Briefing Paper 18 – Can CETA-plus solve the UK’s services problem?

Transition Made Easy

26 September 2017, L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO, Erika Szyszczak is a Professor of Law at the University of Sussex, independent ADR Mediator and a Fellow of the UKTPO. Now it’s official. More than a year after the UKTPO said that it would be necessary (see Briefing Paper 2 and NIER paper), the Prime Minister has announced that the UK wants a transitional deal that preserves the status quo. Namely, membership of the Single market, a customs union with the EU, free mobility of labour, jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), budget payments and no external trade deals. Sad to say, this seems like progress. Despite the language and some of the press commentary, Britain is not ‘opting for’, still less ‘agreeing to’, a transitional deal; it is asking for one in the negotiations. The Florence speech still uses the language of an ‘implementation period’. This implies that between now and 2019 the UK can both negotiate a final settlement to be implemented after the transition and the transition itself.  But the Prime Minister has made no [...]

By , , |2025-07-18T14:08:18+01:0026 September 2017|UK- EU|5 Comments

Briefing Paper 10 – CAN A UK-EU FREE TRADE AREA PRESERVE THE BENEFITS OF THE SINGLE MARKET AND THE CUSTOMS UNION IN SOME SECTORS?

The EU Customs Union and Single Market created a significant volume of trade between the UK and the EU and stimulated the development of European value chains.The UK government has stated its intention to leave the Single Market and Customs Union and this remains the position of the leadership of both main political parties. Yet both enable a degree of integration far exceeding that attainable through any simple tariff-free Free Trade Area (FTA). In this briefing paper we examine the possibilities for maintaining some of these benefits in key sectors. WTO rules are drafted and applied in such a way that the UK and the EU27 could design a WTO-consistent trade agreement that goes some way towards preserving current trading conditions in a subset of sectors. We discuss how this might be achieved and also some of the limitations that such an approach entails. Read Briefing Paper 10 – AN A UK-EU FREE TRADE AREA PRESERVE THE BENEFITS OF THE SINGLE MARKET AND THE CUSTOMS UNION IN SOME SECTORS? 

By , |2024-11-20T13:33:20+00:001 September 2017|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

The economic benefits of Brexit – revisited and rectified

21 August 2017 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Economists for Free Trade (EfFT) are back, offering the Introduction to an unpublished – and hence unknown – report that claims £135 billion benefits from Brexit. It not only repeats the previous claim that GDP will increase by 4% if the UK adopts free trade, which I characterised  as ‘doubly misleading’ in April, but it adds in an extra 2% from ‘improved regulation’, 0.6% from our net budget contribution to the EU and 0.2% from removing the ‘subsidy to unskilled immigration’. It also promises faster growth as well. I’ll come back to free trade, but, first, what regulations will be improved? We are not told. Similarly, what subsidy to immigration? Who knows? The budget contribution to the EU may be saved, but we will need to spend much of it on providing replacements for various EU regulatory bodies such as the European Medicines Agency, on negotiating new deals on things like airlines or nuclear isotopes, supporting farmers (which EfFT apparently accepts), on customs formalities on trade with the EU, on managing alleged unfair trade and on trade disputes, etc. Until we see the details, you have to [...]

By |2025-07-18T14:09:42+01:0021 August 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|2 Comments

Disentangling Brexit trade politics and policies

12 June 2017,  L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Suddenly everyone is talking again about the UK’s new trading relationship with the rest of the EU. Given the structure of the new Parliament, any party’s views may turn out to be pivotal. This blog is partly about what the parties say and partly about making conversation between them fruitful by clarifying the language. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:14:53+01:0012 June 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|3 Comments

What can Free Trade Agreements do for UK Higher Education?

08 May 2017 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Signing a Free Trade Agreement is neither necessary nor sufficient for two countries (or groups of countries) to cooperate and enhance trade in research or higher education services. Doing so helps significantly, but needs to be followed up by detailed operational agreements at a lower level.  […]

By |2025-09-05T12:29:02+01:008 May 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Will eliminating UK tariffs boost UK GDP by 4 percent? Even ‘Economists for Free Trade’ don’t believe it!

19 April 2017 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. In this blog, Professor Winters responds to Patrick Minford and Edgar Miller’s recent paper on unilateral free trade in relation to Brexit. Economists for Free Trade’s Patrick Minford recently suggested that the UK should simply eliminate our tariffs on them [the EU], and by implication – under WTO rules – on everyone else. By doing so, we would achieve free trade for our consumers with one quick move [and increase consumer welfare by 4%] Minford (2017). This, he explains in a fuller exposition, is achievable ‘via Unilateral Free Trade’ – see page 8 of Minford and Miller (2017), henceforth referred to as M&M. But this claim is misleading or worse: It is based on a very particular view of the world economy, Even in M&M’s own analysis, the benefits of 4% of welfare (or GDP) depend on far more than ‘simply eliminating tariffs’; they also require deeper integration with the EU and a race to the bottom on standards; M&M assume that the devaluation of sterling will have no effect on the prices of UK imports! […]

By |2025-09-05T12:30:22+01:0019 April 2017|UK- EU|10 Comments

President Trump and Brexit

9 November 2016 L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. Donald Trump viewed Brexit as a great victory. He also said that the UK would not be at the back of the line for trade deals – perhaps because there would be no line! But where does Trump’s victory leave the overall strategy of Brexit? It makes keeping good access to the EU market – some form of soft Brexit – even more important than it was previously. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:52:33+01:009 November 2016|UK - Non EU|0 Comments

Negotiating the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements

7 November 2016 L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO. The ideal trading partner is rich, large, similar and next door. For the UK this means the EU, and for the UK government, this means trade negotiations with our European neighbours must take priority. In my recent article for the NIESR November Review, I explore the reasons why negotiating the UK’s future trade arrangements is a massive job. These are the main points I raise. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:53:11+01:007 November 2016|UK- EU|0 Comments

A Brexit reality check in Stockholm

19 October 2016 L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO Rule 1 for negotiation: work out what you want and how much you can pay for it.  Rule 2: try to understand where the other side is coming from and how they feel. The muted mood this week among trade specialists in Sweden, one of the UK’s closest allies in the EU, should serve as a reality check ahead of Brexit negotiations. If we want to make Brexit work, we need to take their views seriously. […]

By |2025-07-18T14:54:00+01:0019 October 2016|UK- EU|0 Comments
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