About L. Alan Winters

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So far L. Alan Winters has created 83 blog entries.

Briefing Paper 24 – THE UK’S FUTURE SERVICES TRADE DEALS WITH NON-EU COUNTRIES: A REALITY CHECK

The UK government has high expectations about future services trade deals with non-EU countries. Yet, in practice, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) typically only provide greater legal certainty about current applied policies rather than bringing about actual trade liberalization in services.This Briefing Paper looks at why it is so difficult to achieve actual liberalization in service negotiations and what FTAs, in practice, can offer. The authors argue that based on other countries’ experiences, the UK government will face several significant challenges and complexities in negotiating services FTAs with non-EU countries. To make progress on FTAs, the UK government will need to encourage many bodies across government. Read Briefing Paper 24 – THE UK’S FUTURE SERVICES TRADE DEALS WITH NON-EU COUNTRIES: A REALITY CHECK

By , |2024-11-20T13:24:43+00:001 November 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Would Canada-plus do the trick?

26 September 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the Observatory The brusque dismissal of elements of Mrs May’s Chequers plan at the informal meeting in Salzburg last week has stimulated feverish attempts to revive the case for a deep and special UK-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), under the title of a CETA-plus agreement. This effort received substantial reinforcement from the Institute for Economic Affairs’ paper of 24 September 2018. None of the discussion, however, has dealt seriously with the fact that an FTA will require the introduction of border formalities on UK-EU trade and that these will both violate the commitment to the absence of a border in Ireland and create serious congestion at those ports dealing with UK-EU flows, which will increase trading costs and cut trade with the EU. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:41:19+01:0026 September 2018|UK- EU|4 Comments
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Decoding the Facilitated Customs Arrangement

23 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory and Julia Magntorn is Research Officer in Economics at the UKTPO. There is much to digest in the White Paper on The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union and much to clarify. This blog is devoted entirely to trying to understand the Facilitated Customs Arrangement (FCA) that aims to deliver frictionless trade in goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit. The FCA matters because trade that is ‘as frictionless as possible’ with the EU is now accepted by nearly everyone as desirable and has been characterised by much of business as essential. It also matters in the short term, however, because it is the UK government’s offer to the EU on how to ensure that there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Without a solution to this latter problem there will be no Withdrawal Agreement and no transition. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:43:48+01:0023 July 2018|UK - Non EU|6 Comments
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BP 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?

Download Briefing Paper Briefing Paper 20 – July 2018 Marc Busch, Michael Gasiorek, Peter Holmes, J. Brad Jensen, Rod Ludema, Emily Lydgate, Anna Maria Mayda, Pietra Rivoli, Jim Rollo, Stephen Weymouth, Rorden Wilkinson and L. Alan Winters Key points Introduction Public support for a US-UK trade agreement What is the economic case for a US-UK trade agreement? So, do the data suggest an agreement is worth pursuing? The regulatory elements of a US-UK agreement: “A TTIP for Two”? Conclusion Endnotes Key points There is public support for a US-UK trade agreement, but this sits alongside worries about existing trade agreements, particularly over NAFTA in the US, and is contingent on the kind of regulatory framework pursued. Seeking an agreement allows both countries to present themselves outwardly as pursuing a sovereign policy in their own best interests as well as constructive members of a liberal world trading order. Any meaningful agreement (economically as opposed to politically) will need to deal with the barriers to trade in services, and the regulatory barriers within specific manufacturing sectors. Given the different approaches to regulation, this may be challenging. Among the most important of challenges in negotiating a US-UK trade agreement will be [...]

By , , , , , , , , , , , |2025-12-17T16:03:41+00:0012 July 2018|Comments Off on BP 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?
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Weasel words in the Chequers Statement

9 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. The (three page) Chequers Statement is a remarkable political sticking plaster. Coupled with some robust politics it appeared to have kept the Cabinet unified for a few more days, although now even that goal has been missed. This note is not about the politics, but about the technical aspects of the Statement which is replete with ambiguities and wishful thinking (or worse). The White Paper, if it arrives on time, may resolve some of these ambiguities, but that is far from clear, given the political imperatives that Mrs May feels must guide her actions. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:46:58+01:009 July 2018|UK- EU|4 Comments
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What about the remaining 80 percent – services? The ‘Customs Union’ and ‘Unilateral Free Trade’ share the same flaw

05 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Two years in and the Cabinet is still squabbling over the UK’s trade relationship with Europe. Among the options most discussed, if not most likely to occur, are The Jersey option – arrangements to provide conditions equivalent to the customs union and the Single Market in goods; Mrs May’s ‘third way’ customs partnership – where the UK collects EU-level tariffs at the border and rebates them only if UK tariffs are lower and firms can prove that the goods did not leave the UK. Until the UK can convince the EU that the technology to do the latter will actually prevent the leakage of lower-taxed goods into the EU, this is effectively the ‘customs union’; and Unilateral free trade – ‘no deal’ followed by the immediate abolition of all UK tariffs. This blog does not assess the relative merits of these arrangements, but notes that they share a common flaw: they ignore 80 percent of the British economy! The more successful 80 percent, in fact – the services sectors, in which the UK has a manifest comparative advantage (see below). The advocates of these [...]

By |2025-07-18T13:48:03+01:006 July 2018|UK- EU|8 Comments
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Briefing Paper 20 – THE FUTURE OF US-UK TRADE: WHAT CASE FOR A BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT?

Both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May have stated their keenness to negotiate and agree the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement after Brexit. This briefing paper looks at what the key issues are likely to be and what a transatlantic agreement may, or may not, comprise. First, we explore the extent to which a trade agreement between the US and the UK would have popular support at a time when debate about trade on both sides of the Atlantic is contested. Second, we consider what the benefits of such an agreement might be by considering the aggregate economic case. Finally, we probe where problems and tensions may lie, focusing primarily on the regulatory aspects of a transatlantic commercial tie-up. Read Briefing Paper 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?

By , , , , , , , , , , , |2024-11-20T13:26:17+00:001 July 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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The imposition of tariffs by the USA on steel and aluminium today is most unfortunate, but it is not yet, nationally speaking, a disaster.

1 June 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. President Trump threatened them two months ago and invited various countries to avoid them by agreeing ‘voluntarily’ to curtail their exports to the USA. Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil agreed to do so but, to their credit, Canada, the European Union and Mexico did not, and so face 25 percent tariffs from today. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:49:01+01:001 June 2018|UK - Non EU|3 Comments
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EU likely to reject bespoke Canada trade deal for UK

22 March 2018 Julia Magntorn is Research Assistant in Economics at the UKTPO and L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. The European Union is likely to reject a significantly enhanced version of its Canada trade deal for the UK after Brexit. Our in-depth analysis of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada concludes that the EU’s commitment to the Single Market is so deeply ingrained that a substantial loosening of the rules for the UK would be politically impossible. The EU may agree to some exceptions but these would fall far short of a bespoke deal and would be a poor substitute for the Single Market, say the report’s authors Julia Magntorn and L. Alan Winters. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:56:14+01:0022 March 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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BP 18 – Can CETA-Plus Solve the UK’s Services Problem?

Briefing Paper 18 – March 2018 Download Briefing Paper Julia Magntorn and L. Alan Winters Key Points Introduction What Does CETA Achieve on Services? The Most Favoured Nation Clause Methodology EU Services Liberalisation in CETA CETA Compared to WTO Regimes What Would CETA+++ Offer in Services? How Many Pluses: Can the UK Improve on CETA? Conclusion Further Information […]

By , |2025-12-12T11:02:26+00:0021 March 2018|Comments Off on BP 18 – Can CETA-Plus Solve the UK’s Services Problem?
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