The UK-US ‘geopolitical’ deal: A dangerous precedent for the UK and the world

We are living in a geopolitical world. While states may cloak their actions in legal justifications or economic reasoning, trade has become a tool to assert power, control narratives, and forge alliances. Trade deals are being designed to reduce vulnerabilities, not barriers. The recently announced US-UK deal is not a traditional trade agreement but a ‘geopolitical’ deal strongly reflecting the US’s geopolitical rivalry against China. Lacking the legally binding nature of international agreements, the deal sidesteps legal frameworks and instead stakes its importance on strategic alignment. As such, it signals a broader shift in how the US, which has its global leadership threatened by the rise of China as a superpower, now uses trade policy: not as a matter of market efficiency or legal commitments, but as an instrument of geopolitical influence and national security. Furthermore, the deal clearly shows the second Trump administration’s strong intention to force trade partners to collude with the US to squeeze China from global supply chains. Securitising supply chains At face value, the deal includes a few economic concessions, conditional on fulfilling security-related requirements. For example, the US has agreed to reduce tariffs on British steel, aluminium, and automobiles. In return, the UK will [...]

Bridge over the River Kwai or Road to Nowhere?

It is not often that there’s a genuinely new idea around in trade policy, but lo and behold, here’s one: a tariff on a service.  US President Trump is considering a 100% charge on films made abroad. Spielberg would call it a close encounter of the third kind. Although the charge would apply in principle to any foreign-made film, it could hit the UK film sector, part of its successful creative industries, particularly hard, turning it into the English Patient if the idea gained traction. But how could it even work? Since services are intangible and non-storable, suppliers and consumers of services somehow need to come together for a service to ‘change hands.’  Internationally, this can happen in a variety of ways. For instance, the service may be delivered digitally via the Internet, as indeed it would be the case for a movie or an architectural blueprint.  The consumer could travel abroad to enjoy a service (e.g. tourism), or firms could set up affiliates abroad to sell their services to local consumers (anyone who hasn’t done their groceries at Lidl or Aldi?).  Lastly, a service supplier who is a natural person, such as a movie director, could travel to another [...]

By |2025-05-07T15:58:32+01:007 May 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

The UK in a World of Green Industrial Strategies

13 March 2023 Emily Lydgate is Reader (Senior Associate Professor) in Environmental Law at University of Sussex School of Law, Politics and Sociology and Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory The UKTPO is pleased to re-publish this TaPP Network Workshop Summary, an output of a TaPP workshop in January with speakers Geraldo Vidigal (University of Amsterdam), Emily Lydgate (UKTPO/CITP), Ilaria Espa (USI/WTI), and Greg Messenger (TaPP/University of Bristol). Rather than a blog, this note summarises views of panel participants and the authors. It provides useful insights on the latest developments in this area and policy recommendations for the UK in navigating the new subsidies race between the US and the EU. […]

By |2025-01-29T15:39:36+00:0013 March 2023|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Economic Sanctions: No End to War in Ukraine

24 February 2023 Erika Szyszczak is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor Emerita of Law at the University of Sussex. 24 February 2022: a date that shook the world as Russian aggression in Ukraine escalated. The fragility of a strategic democratic state was challenged, alongside exposing the vulnerability of interdependent global supply chains. Thus, it was not surprising that the early response to Russian aggression was in the form of economic sanctions led by the US, the UK and the EU. [1] […]

By |2025-01-29T15:40:17+00:0024 February 2023|Blog, International Trade|1 Comment

Should trade policy be used to tackle forced labour?

16 September 2022 Erika Szyszczak is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor Emerita of Law at the University of Sussex. On 23 February 2022, in a Communication on decent work worldwide, the EU announced a new legislative initiative tackling issues of sustainability and working conditions in global trade. [1] On the same day, the European Commission published a proposal for a Directive on corporate sustainability due diligence. […]

By |2022-09-16T17:57:43+01:0016 September 2022|Uncategorised|1 Comment

The US negotiating objectives for the UK-US trade deal clearly put America First.

5 March 2019 Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Last week, the United States published a document that set out their negotiating objectives for a trade agreement with the UK, shortly after the publication of virtually identical documents for negotiating with the EU and with Japan. Those in the UK who expected ‘special treatment’ from the US are in for a disappointment, but not a surprise (as UKTPO researchers pointed out in October 2016). In negotiating with major trading partners after Brexit, the UK is likely to be a price taker because of a power imbalance. […]

By |2019-03-05T11:17:50+00:005 March 2019|UK - Non EU|8 Comments

Trading on ‘WTO Rules’ is NOT the best option: the treachery of growth rates

7 August 2018 Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Officer in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory. In a recent post on Brexit Central , Michael Burrage examines the growth of different countries’ exports to the EU12 over 1993-2015 and asks: ‘How can trading with the EU under WTO rules be the worst possible option when the exports to the EU of 15 countries which have been doing just that over 23 years of the Single Market have grown four times as much as those of the UK, despite all the tariff and non-tariff barriers they have faced?’ The answer is ‘easily’! […]

By |2018-08-07T16:21:06+01:007 August 2018|UK- EU|4 Comments

Regulatory barriers likely to be contentious and most significant obstacles to UK-US trade

12 July 2018 Rorden Wilkinson is Professor of Global Political Economy and Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Charlotte Humma is Research Communications Manager at the Business School and Business Manager at the Observatory. Standards and technical regulations are likely to be the most significant—and potentially contentious—obstacles to a UK-US trade deal according to leading trade experts. Published today our latest briefing paper states that the UK faces a challenge in whether it stays with EU regulation, moves towards the US approach or tries a pick-and-mix approach of its own. […]

By |2018-07-12T13:34:00+01:0012 July 2018|UK - Non EU|0 Comments

The imposition of tariffs by the USA on steel and aluminium today is most unfortunate, but it is not yet, nationally speaking, a disaster.

1 June 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. President Trump threatened them two months ago and invited various countries to avoid them by agreeing ‘voluntarily’ to curtail their exports to the USA. Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil agreed to do so but, to their credit, Canada, the European Union and Mexico did not, and so face 25 percent tariffs from today. […]

By |2018-06-01T12:21:18+01:001 June 2018|UK - Non EU|3 Comments

Environmental protection sidelined on the UK’s Brexit agenda

7 February 2017 Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. While the UK government White Paper on leaving the EU may be light on detail, it does suggest that securing UK environmental protections is near the bottom of its list of priorities, with a scant dedicated paragraph (8.41). Compare this with its complete section on worker’s rights; or compare to the country of Wales, which includes maintaining social and environmental standards as one of six Brexit priorities. […]

By |2017-02-07T16:08:41+00:007 February 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
Go to Top