UK- EU

Compromise that pleases no one: What we can learn about the future UK-EU trade relationship from the ‘level playing field’ commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement

11 March 2019 Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. On Tuesday Theresa May will again bring before Parliament the EU deal for which she suffered a defeat of 230 votes – the worst ever. Whilst the scale of the defeat suggests that the deal is an affront to the will of MPs, the rejected Withdrawal Agreement, with its Northern Irish ‘backstop’, accomplished two things that many support – or at least are moving toward by default. The first is a trade agreement that respects the outcome of the Referendum yet provides a measure of frictionless trade. The second is to avoid leaving the EU with no deal. […]

By Emily Lydgate|2025-07-18T11:53:10+01:0011 March 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment

Any free port in a storm: Analysing the potential of free zones in post-Brexit Britain

27 February 2019 Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit and Peter Holmes is a Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. There are proposals to relax customs rules and duties in specially-designated areas known as free ports or more generally free zones. But these would make little impact on rebuilding the UK economy after Brexit, reveal Dr Serwicka and Dr Holmes in our latest Briefing Paper ‘What is the extra mileage in the reintroduction of ‘free zones’ in the UK?’ […]

By Peter Holmes|2025-07-18T11:55:31+01:0027 February 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|16 Comments

FDI in UK and Brexit: are there regional patterns?

19 February 2019 Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Nicolo Tamberi, Research Assistant in Economics for the Observatory. Earlier this month, Japanese car manufacturer, Nissan made an unexpected U-turn and announced that it was no longer planning to manufacture its new X-Trail SUV model at the Sunderland plant. In a statement, Nissan said that: ‘while we have taken this decision for business reasons, the continued uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future’.[1] Yesterday, another Japanese car manufacturer, Honda, said that it was going to close its Swindon plant in 2021, and consolidate its production operations in Japan – a move that is going to put some 3,500 jobs at risk, with more jobs threatened in the supply chain. Early speculation suggests that tariff-free access to the EU is among the factors behind the company’s decision.[2] Although neither Nissan nor Honda explicitly blamed Brexit for a decision to scale down their operations in the UK, Brexit provides the context for the decisions and for the steps that can be taken to cope with them. […]

By Nicolò Tamberi|2025-07-18T11:56:57+01:0019 February 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

A spoonful of sugar

13 February 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Currently, there is much focus on the politics of getting some version of the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. This requires a political resolution to the inclusion of the ‘backstop’ in the Withdrawal Agreement. The strategy appears to be to come up with “alternative arrangements” which will be acceptable to the UK Parliament and to which the EU can agree. A spoonful of sugar might help the medicine go down. However, even if this can be achieved the fundamental issue will not have been resolved. […]

By Michael Gasiorek|2025-07-18T12:02:37+01:0013 February 2019|UK- EU|4 Comments

It’s not just about the EU…

12 February 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. As a member of the EU, the UK is party to around 40 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with more than 70 countries. Over the last two years or so, the Government has stated that it intends to roll over, or more formally, ‘replicate’ these agreements. Indeed, in 2017 Liam Fox claimed that ”we’ll have up to 40 ready for one second after midnight in March 2019”. However, in recent weeks it has become clear that this is not going to happen,[1] and that at best there will only be a very small number of agreements replicated.[2] In this blog, we give some summary statistics outlining why this matters economically and which sectors are most vulnerable. We also discuss why, practically, very few agreements can be replicated by the current withdrawal date. […]

By Julia Magntorn Garrett, Michael Gasiorek|2025-07-18T12:05:13+01:0012 February 2019|UK- EU|0 Comments

Why we need a referendum to ratify Brexit

11 February 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory Parliamentary discussions on Brexit seem to be making no progress towards a decision that can command a majority and the timetable for future Parliamentary votes is uncertain. The only result of last week’s discussion in Brussels was an agreement to hold further talks later this month, a jaw-droppingly relaxed timetable in the circumstances. The Labour Party leadership has produced a statement with two objectives both of which are probably unattainable: a customs union with the EU in which the UK has a significant voice in the setting of EU trade policy, and a close relationship with the single market that falls short of membership. The Conservative Party is having internal discussions (with civil service support, a constitutional innovation) about the Malthouse Compromise, whose oxymoronic objectives are a new backstop that is not a backstop or an agreed withdrawal without a withdrawal agreement. Out of this unpromising material, however, some outcome must emerge before March 29. […]

By Alasdair Smith|2025-07-18T12:05:37+01:0011 February 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment

Perils of a “No Deal” Brexit: Opinion 1/17 and the Case of CETA

6 February 2019 Professor Erika Szyszczak is a Professor of Law at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO. The UK Government and Parliament are mired in political manoeuvres on what the post-Brexit trade landscape should look like, but it is business as usual in the European Courts, with a salient reminder that a “No-Deal” Brexit could leave the UK waiting for many years for a legally certain trade agreement with the EU. […]

By Erika Szyszczak|2025-07-18T12:06:01+01:006 February 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment

End of an era: Why Brexit threatens London’s position as Europe’s financial powerhouse

4 February 2019 The Government’s presumption it can negotiate a special deal to prevent UK-based banks being frozen out from lucrative business within the EU after Brexit is highly likely to be proven wrong in time, according to our latest study: ‘Equivalence, mutual recognition in financial services and the UK negotiating position’. The Briefing Paper by Dr Andy Tarrant, Dr Peter Holmes and Prof Dan Kelemen warns that the EU is almost certain to reject any approach to a future trade deal that seeks to retain UK-based banks access to EU markets while giving the UK the ability to vary its regulation away from that applied by the EU. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-02-04T12:05:31+00:004 February 2019|UK- EU|0 Comments

A Free Trade Agreement will not solve the Irish border problem

17 January 2019 Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex, Director of Interanalysis and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory Since the Government’s defeat in the House of Commons, there has been a flurry of comments, notably from Steve Baker arguing that Mrs May’s deal can be replaced by some form of Free Trade Agreement. One must immediately point out that the treaty basis of the Withdrawal Agreement does not include a long-term trade agreement. This can only be negotiated after Brexit. But even if it could be negotiated now, it would not solve the problem of the Irish Border. The UK and the EU in both the Good Friday Agreement and the Dec 2017 joint statement committed themselves not merely to barrier-free trade in goods with no hard border in Ireland, but to the preservation of an All-Island Economy. […]

By Peter Holmes|2025-07-18T13:28:54+01:0017 January 2019|UK- EU|6 Comments

Three-way voting paradoxes

16 January 2019 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory This note supplements an article on ‘Organising a three-way referendum’ published on The Economist website (16th January 2019). It offers a worked example to show how the three main approaches to three-way ballots operate and some of the challenges they throw up. It reinforces Ken Arrow’s result that there is no ideal way of combining individual preferences to select one of three options. […]

By L. Alan Winters|2025-07-18T13:29:24+01:0014 January 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments

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