Briefing Paper 6 SERVICES TRADE IN THE UK: WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Trade in services is economically significant for several reasons; it directly affects UK consumers’ welfare in such sectors as telecommunications, health or retail distribution; producer services such as finance, transportation or professional services are inputs into both the production and international exchange of goods; and it makes a positive contribution to the UK’s current account. Brexit will have important repercussions for the UK’s economic ties with the EU in the realm of services markets. This paper highlights how Brexit might directly and indirectly affect UK services trade and policy-making in this area.
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Briefing Paper 5 – UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?
This briefing paper provides an evaluation of the feasibility of different options for post-Brexit trade relations. With the EU accounting for close to 50% of the UK’s imports and exports of goods and services, the focus in this paper is on the UK’s future trading relations with the EU itself. Whilst all of the options listed in this paper are problematic, the aim is to examine the limitations of what may be feasible and – in so doing – to suggest a way, or ways, forward. Given that the UK’s objectives take the form of seeking to impose certain constraints on the post-Brexit outcome, we look at the extent to which each option is consistent with these ‘red lines’.
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A Brexit reality check in Stockholm
19 October 2016
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO
Rule 1 for negotiation: work out what you want and how much you can pay for it.
Rule 2: try to understand where the other side is coming from and how they feel.
The muted mood this week among trade specialists in Sweden, one of the UK’s closest allies in the EU, should serve as a reality check ahead of Brexit negotiations. If we want to make Brexit work, we need to take their views seriously. […]
Brexit and the regions: a lighter shade of dark
14 October 2016
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, and director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nick Jacob is an associate tutor and research student in economics – also at the University of Sussex.
Few doubt that Brexit poses some immense challenges for the British economy. But for a government that professes to want an economy that ‘works for everyone’, there is possibly one encouraging factor: Brexit seems likely to help re-balance the economy. This note asks what Brexit implies for different parts of the UK and suggests two reasons why regions outside London and the South East could be less severely challenged. […]
Brexit, banks and bother
12 October 2016
Guest blog by Phil Molyneux, Dean of the College of Business, Law, Education and Social Sciences and Professor of Banking and Finance at Bangor University.
It’s not looking good in the City or anywhere within the UK financial services sector. The sector contributed £66 billion in tax revenues to the UK Exchequer in 2015 – around 11% of total income – so this is potentially a concern for all of us. […]
Briefing Paper 4 – TRIGGERING ARTICLE 50 TEU A LEGAL ANALYSIS
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) will govern the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Several aspects of the interpretation and application of Article 50 TEU pose particular challenges, including domestic controversy regarding the constitutional requirements for triggering Article 50 TEU, the short time-span of negotiation, and the uncertain role for the UK in trade negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world during the withdrawal process. This paper outlines these issues, focusing in particular on the EU and international trade dimensions of withdrawal, in order to provide clarity and highlight potential pitfalls affecting both the EU and the UK.
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Briefing Paper 3 – ROOS AND RULES: WHY THE EEA IS NOT THE SAME AS MEMBERSHIP OF THE SINGLE MARKET
This briefing paper summarises two issues that a post-Brexit United Kingdom would face if it re-joined the European Economic Area (EEA). It introduces the concept of the EEA+EU as a ‘regulatory union’ within which products, once approved in one country, can circulate freely. Secondly, Rules of Origin (RoOs) — which in effect specify the domestic share of value-added — would need to be adhered to, raising concerns about the viability of supply chains with UK links.
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Brexit: the lawyer’s first 100 days
30 September 2016
Erika Szyszczak is Professor of Law in the School of Law, Politics and Sociology at the University of Sussex, and a member of UKTPO.
The “first 100 days” has become a standard by which to evaluate important political times. Undoubtedly, the momentous decision on 23 June 2016 to break up the current geopolitical space of Europe will be examined by historians as a decisive period of modern European history.
From a lawyer’s perspective the most striking feature of the last 100 days has been the legal uncertainty of how to implement the referendum result. This represents the challenge we love. So this blog examines some of these uncertainties. […]
UK-Australia trade deal useful as a warm-up for tougher negotiations
12 September 2016
Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics, in the School of Business, Management and Economics and a member of UKTPO. He is also Managing Director of InterAnalysis, a University spin-out company focusing on trade policy.
There has been talk in the past week about a future free trade agreement (FTA) between the UK and Australia – and indeed Australia expressed interest in such an FTA soon after the Brexit referendum. For the UK government this seems to be an affirmation of the future possibilities for the UK, as and when it assumes full responsibility for trade policy post Brexit. In reality, our trade with Australia is relatively small and so the real value may be in the opportunity for the UK’s fledgling trade negotiators to get round the table with friendly faces and hammer out a low-stakes trade deal. […]
What does an inclusive UK trade policy look like?
5 September 2016
In the face of severe and competing pressures, a UK trade policy that ‘works for everyone’ – to use Prime Minister Theresa May’s phrase – is going to be immensely difficult to achieve, writes Steve McGuire.
The legal and political obstacles to the UK’s construction of an independent international trade policy have been well documented. The legal complexities are eye-watering; as my UKTPO colleague Emily Lydgate points out, the relationship between Article 50 and UK trade policy is unclear. Nor does the UK government have enough expertise in the negotiation and implementation of trade rules. […]
