Download Briefing Paper 48 Briefing Paper 48 – September 2020 Pierluigi Montalbano, Silvia Nenci, Nicolo Tamberi and L. Alan Winters Key Points Introduction: Brexit and ACP countries Do ACP countries’ incomes depend significantly on UK-EU trade? Cocoa, Brexit and Rules of Origin Conclusion Appendix and References Key Points Brexit will impinge on the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries currently governed by the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiated by the EU. The main reason for this is that UK incomes, and hence demand for ACP products, will be lower than expected over at least the next decade. There is also a concern that the new Brexit-induced frictions on UK-EU trade will reduce the demand for ACP inputs into the goods that the UK and EU trade with each other: so-called “indirect effects” on exports. Our empirical results show that, while these “indirect effects” on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic effects will be tiny in aggregate even in the case of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. This is because the ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs into the products involved in UK-EU trade. In addition, we show that in one industry in which ACP inputs are [...]

Download Briefing Paper 26 Briefing Paper 26 – November 2018 Authors: Ilona Serwicka, L. Alan Winters, Yi Jiang Key points Introduction The South East of England and cross-border trade Demography Sectoral profile, employment patterns and unemployment Analysing the impact of Brexit on those who are working in Hampshire and Sussex The impact of Brexit on those who are working in Hampshire and Sussex The Brexit shock by broad sector Adjustment of Brexit employment shocks for in- and out-commuting The impact of Brexit on those who are resident in Hampshire and Sussex Conclusion Annex: some modelling details Adjustment for in- and out- commuting: Step-by-step explanation References Footnotes Online Appendix Full results KEY POINTS Before the end of this year, British Members of Parliament have been promised a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final text of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration before they are voted on in the European Parliament. MPs have the option to reject these, so a ‘no deal’ Brexit remains a strong possibility. A ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario could be particularly disruptive to the economy of South East England because the region is heavily engaged in cross-border trade. It is ranked first in the UK for goods exports and [...]