Briefing Paper 12 – November 2017 Download Briefing Paper Peter Holmes Summary The Current Challenge for Consumers Trade Impact: Low Prices Versus Threatened Jobs? Producer Interests: Anti-Dumping Regulatory Impacts Conclusion Further Information […]
6 February 2018 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and Managing Director of InterAnalysis, Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit. All are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO). How would different versions of Brexit affect the UK economy? Are some parts of the economy likely to be affected more than others? Will trade deals with the rest of the world make up for any loss of UK access to EU markets? These are highly topical questions this week as the UK Cabinet’s Brexit committee makes important decisions about its objectives in the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. They are the questions we seek to address in our new Briefing Paper ‘Which Manufacturing Sectors are Most Vulnerable to Brexit?’, published today. As it says on the tin, we answer them only for the manufacturing sectors; and in doing so we take a very disaggregated approach to UK manufacturing. […]
Download the Briefing Paper Briefing Paper 16 – February 2018 Michael Gasiorek, Ilona Serwicka, Alasdair Smith Key Points Introduction UK Manufacturing in 2016 Modelling the Impact of Brexit on Manufacturing Work to Date Five Brexit Scenarios Average Impact Impact on Different Scenarios R&D Intensity Regional Impact Conclusion Annex: Modelling Details References Further Information Key Points None of the five Brexit scenarios that we model leads to a positive outcome for UK manufacturing. Even if the UK were to remain a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), UK manufacturing industry risks shrinking as a result of the UK leaving the EU. However, there is considerable variation across manufacturing sectors. While textiles, clothing and footwear production may have the largest decline, food processing sectors may see growth in domestic production. Although post-Brexit trade barriers may lead to expansion in output in some manufacturing sectors, this will come at the expense of higher prices for consumers and for producers buying intermediate inputs. High tech and medium-high tech manufacturing sectors are more at risk of a significant decline in domestic production than medium and medium-low tech sectors. This has important implications for the UK Government’s Industrial Strategy, which aims to support [...]
16 January 2018 Dr Peter Holmes Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. Nick Jacob is a PhD Candidate in Economics at the University of Sussex. The need for UK firms to comply with detailed Rules of Origin in a possible post-Brexit Free Trade Agreement with the EU has been widely reported. But the different procedures which firms could use to prove their compliance — and the costs to firms in time and money — have been mostly overlooked. […]
16 November 207 Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO. The European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, has recently confirmed that the UK will cease to be a member of the EU at midnight (Brussels time) on 29 March 2019. This means that we are now less than 500 days and under 350 working days away from the Brexit date. More time has already passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016. […]
2 November 2017 Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO. As the United Kingdom is preparing to leave the European Union, Government policy is to seek a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU. But Brexit talks have not moved onto the trade issues yet and even if the future trade relationship is taken up in December, this gives little time and offers no guarantee that an agreement will be reached and ratified before 29 March 2019, the Brexit date. The Government has recently recognised the possibility that talks might break down and started to outline a ‘no deal’ vision of the UK-EU trade. Our analysis reveals that unemployed households, those with children, and pensioners will all fare off worse than average in the case of a ‘no deal’. A new paper, Will Brexit Raise the Cost of Living? by Stephen Clarke, Ilona Serwicka and L. Alan Winters, and published by the National Institute Economic Review, looks at the impact that imposing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs on UK imports from the EU would have on the price of goods sold in the UK and the average cost of living. […]
17 October 2017 Steve McGuire is Professor of Business and Public Policy and Head of the School of Business, Management and Economics at the University of Sussex. He is a Fellow of the UKTPO. Bombardier has found an elegant solution to its trade problems with the United States: sell a controlling stake in the programme to a company with deeper pockets to defend itself – and with a US production base immune, by definition, from US tariffs. […]
17 October 2017 Lower-income households would be disproportionately affected should the UK revert to WTO tariffs Exiting the EU without a trade deal and reverting to WTO ‘most-favoured nation’ (MFN) tariffs with the EU would lead to significant price rises across a range of goods, with low-income households facing the biggest cost pressures. This is according to a new joint-report published by the Resolution Foundation and the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. […]
11 October 2017 One of the most critical issues for the Brexit negotiations in relation to trade is whether the UK should remain in the EU Single Market. The Conservatives claim that the UK will no longer be members of its single market or its customs union by the end of a two-year transitional period, but at his party’s conference, Jeremy Corbyn said a Labour government would strike a deal with the EU that "guarantees unimpeded access to the single market" after Brexit. We have produced a short, animated video that explains what the Single Market is, how it works and the ways it effects trade, and thereby the economy. This includes the role of the European Court of Justice. Ultimately, the video explains that there is a trade-off between making your laws independently and cooperating sufficiently to be a part of a bigger market and achieve higher incomes. https://vimeo.com/237091027 Republishing guidelines The UK Trade Policy Observatory believes in the free flow of information and encourages readers to cite our materials, providing due acknowledgement. For online use, this should be a link to he original resource on the our website. We do not however, publish under a Creative Commons license. This means you CANNOT republish our articles online or in print for free.
Academic papers and reports SHOULD THE UK REJOIN PEM? Anna Jerzewska UKTPO Working Paper NORTHERN IRELAND’S TRADE IN GOODS IN AN ERA OF BREXIT UNCERTAINTY: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE Ruby Acquah, Mattia Di Ubaldo, Michael Gasiorek & Barry Reilly UKTPO Working Paper TRADE AND THE INTENSITY OF PRODUCT REGULATION Mattia Di Ubaldo, Michael Gasiorek, Barry Reilly, Aldo Sandoval-Hernandez UKTPO Working Paper TO JUDGE OR NOT TO JUDGE: NON LIQUET IN WTO ADJUDICATION Peter Holmes and Sunayana Sasmal UKTPO Working Paper Mattia Di Ubaldo and Michael Gasiorek European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 72, March 2022 Brexit, food law and the UK's search for a post-EU identity Emily Lydgate and Chloe Anthony The Modern Law Review, Volume 85, March 2022 Voluntary programs and emissions revisited: What is the effect of EU trade agreements with environmental provisions? Mattia Di Ubaldo, Steven McGuire and Vikrant Shirodkar Journal of International Business Policy, February 2022 The Consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s International Trade Ilaria Fusacchia, Luca Salvatici and L Alan Winters Forthcoming in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, volume 38, Issue 1, January 2022 The Appendix to the paper is available here. Exporters and shocks: impact of the Brexit [...]
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