Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. In recent weeks Sir Keir Starmer has visited Germany, France, Ireland and Italy, each in the name, he says, of turning a corner on Brexit, resetting the UK’s relationship with Europe and – most importantly – raising economic growth. The OBR estimates Brexit in its current form to be costing the UK a permanent non recoverable 4% of GDP pa. So far, the PM’s visits to the EU have been good symbolism. Recent UK opinion polling shows increased public support for building back closer ties with the EU, reflecting that there are many in the UK, including a growing contingent of “Bregretters”, who would like to repair the economic and political damage done since 2016. On the European side the optics of welcome have been decently warm, although perhaps this is not so very surprising after almost ten years of dealing with EU-shy Conservative governments. However, it is quite striking that, at the time of writing, Starmer has not yet made a visit to Brussels. He may be waiting for Ursula von der Leyen to launch her [...]

David Henig is the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).  The Conservatives seriously proposed a Brexit with no deals with the EU. Since the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) has been in place, the EU has said it can’t be reopened in any circumstance. Now Labour wants a reset but would prefer a quiet one that nobody really notices. What is it about the world’s second-largest trade relationship[i] that means it is talked down consistently? Similarly, an integrated UK and EU is surely crucial for European competitiveness and security, so why does neither side see this? Why the UK and EU need each other Most obviously, this is the ongoing aftermath of a divorce so messy that both parties simply want to pretend everything is now fine for them. Except, geography means the relationship can’t just be ended, not to mention a billion euros of annual trade, which is rather a lot of customers dependent on governments to help them. Then there’s Northern Ireland, which has already been called the unwanted child of a Brexit split. Not to mention, shared objectives for a transition to net-zero, and of course the [...]