A Free Trade Agreement will not solve the Irish border problem

17 January 2019 Dr Peter Holmes, Reader in  Economics at the University of Sussex, Director of Interanalysis and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory Since the Government’s defeat in the House of Commons, there has been a flurry of comments, notably from Steve Baker arguing that Mrs May’s deal can be replaced by some form of Free Trade Agreement. One must immediately point out that the treaty basis of the Withdrawal Agreement does not include a long-term trade agreement. This can only be negotiated after Brexit. But even if it could be negotiated now, it would not solve the problem of the Irish Border. The UK and the EU in both the Good Friday Agreement and the Dec 2017 joint statement committed themselves not merely to barrier-free trade in goods with no hard border in Ireland, but to the preservation of an All-Island Economy. […]

By |2019-01-17T10:58:14+00:0017 January 2019|UK- EU|6 Comments

Three-way voting paradoxes

16 January 2019 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory This note supplements an article on ‘Organising a three-way referendum’ published on The Economist website (16th January 2019). It offers a worked example to show how the three main approaches to three-way ballots operate and some of the challenges they throw up. It reinforces Ken Arrow’s result that there is no ideal way of combining individual preferences to select one of three options. […]

By |2019-01-14T09:33:02+00:0014 January 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments

Briefing Paper 27 – EQUIVALENCE, MUTUAL RECOGNITION IN FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE UK NEGOTIATING POSITION

This briefing paper explores the likely content of a market access agreement for financial services between the UK and the EU. Despite the UK Government’s early hopes that all trade issues could have been settled in the Withdrawal Agreement, the actual situation is that this Agreement addresses only those trade issues necessary to ensure an open Irish Border.  The accompanying Political Declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU lays out some broad non-binding principles on which negotiations around financial services access are intended to proceed during the transition period, but important details are undefined. During the negotiation of the Political Declaration itself, some counter-briefing took place as to the meaning of some of these principles. The existence of such counter-briefing suggests that when these negotiations commence, the rules of access for UK financial services will again be a contentious issue. This paper uses what we know now to analyse the options that may emerge and the likelihood of their adoption. Read Briefing Paper 27 – EQUIVALENCE, MUTUAL RECOGNITION IN FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE UK NEGOTIATING POSITION

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