About Julia Magntorn Garrett

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So far Julia Magntorn Garrett has created 35 blog entries.

Hiding in Plain Sight – Why Services Exports Matter for the UK

1 April 2019 Dr Ingo Borchert is Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  During the first round of the indicative voting process at Parliament, the motion that proposes a permanent customs union attracted the second highest number of Ayes and was rejected by the slimmest margin of all eight motions.  This result shows the prevailing preoccupation with trade in merchandise goods.  Amongst other things, a customs union alone does nothing for services trade.  In this blog, we set out why the continued neglect of services trade is a major concern for the UK economy.[1] A twin-jet aircraft with just one engine on would ordinarily be bound for an emergency landing rather than for a smooth journey ahead. […]

By , |2025-07-18T11:48:59+01:001 April 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|35 Comments
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BP 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs

Download Briefing Paper 29 Briefing Paper 29 – March 2019 Michael Gasiorek and Julia Magntorn Garrett Key points Introduction Understanding the proposed ‘No Deal’ tariffs Where are the big changes? Modelling the impact of the ‘No Deal’ tariffs Conclusion Footnotes Key points To help mitigate some of the effects of ‘No Deal’ the UK has proposed to liberalise most MFN tariffs to zero. In order to comply with WTO rules, in a ‘No Deal’ scenario these new tariffs would apply to trade with the EU and with non-EU countries. The share of the UK’s imports that would be tariff-free under the Government’s proposed MFN tariffs, compared with the UK’s current situation, represents a substantial liberalisation with regard to non-EU imports. This would reduce the EU’s competitive advantage in exporting to the UK, and would encourage more imports from non-EU countries. However, it is not only tariffs that matter in driving trade flows. Proximity to the UK market, especially for perishable goods, may also be an important factor, as well as conformity with regulations. Once we take into account the share of UK trade with the EU, all of which is currently tariff-free, the change in tariffs will impact [...]

By , |2025-12-12T11:43:20+00:0025 March 2019|Comments Off on BP 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs
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What should we make of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs?

14 March 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Key points: Around 72% of UK’s MFN tariff lines will see reduced protection. The UK’s average MFN tariff is reduced significantly, from around 7.7% to 0.7%; however this does little to increase the share of duty-free imports. The UK’s MFN tariff proposal will reduce tariffs on many products imported from countries currently trading on WTO terms, but increase them on imports from the EU. Following the first defeat of the Withdrawal Bill in Parliament, and prior to yesterday’s vote on a ‘No Deal’ alternative, the Government published the temporary tariff schedule it proposes to apply in the event of a no deal. As with most things Brexit, this is complicated to unpick, especially as some of the listed items are simply asterisked, and the details on these need to be found in another (1400 page) document! […]

By , , |2025-07-18T11:50:38+01:0014 March 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|7 Comments
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Tariff Woes

12 March 2019 Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Tariffs are the simplest and most direct of the tools of trade policy: they are taxes on imports. Broadly speaking, high tariffs help to shelter domestic industries from international competition, whereas lower tariffs increase competition and benefit consumers through both lower prices and permitting a wider variety of products to choose from. Despite saying that taking back control of its trade policy is imperative and that the UK may have its own trade policy in under three weeks (30th March), the Government has yet to reveal its policy for UK tariffs. The Financial Times recently reported that the plan was to eliminate the majority of industrial tariffs and, in the same vein, Sky News reported on the Government’s intention to cut 80-90% of all tariffs to zero. Many business owners are anxiously awaiting further information, as they may have only a matter of weeks to adjust to changes that could seriously affect their business. […]

By , |2025-07-18T11:52:44+01:0012 March 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments
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Briefing Paper 29 – DEAL OR ‘NO DEAL’? THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE UK’S ‘NO DEAL’ TARIFFS

This paper assesses the possible consequences of the Government’s proposed No Deal tariff regime. While there have been numerous previous assessments of the economic impact of a ‘No Deal’, the tariff proposal by the UK Government provides a new set of tariffs which have not been assessed in the existing empirical literature. In this briefing paper, the authors explain carefully the Government’s proposals and identify how much of UK trade would be affected by the changes in tariffs in a ‘No Deal’ scenario and provide an empirical assessment of the scale of the economic challenge which could face UK industries in the event of ‘No Deal’. They find that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will pose a significant challenge to the UK economy with a negative impact on output, exports and imports driven largely by the increased cost of trading with the EU. The results highlight that in the event of ‘No Deal’ the Government’s room for policy manoeuvre is somewhat limited. Read Briefing Paper 29 – Deal or ‘No Deal’? The economic consequences of the UK’s ‘No Deal’ tariffs

By , |2024-11-20T13:21:26+00:001 March 2019|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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The UK’s Continuity Trade Agreements: Missing in Inaction

25 February 2019 Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Two weeks ago, the UKTPO called for further transparency on the Government’s current progress on replicating the existing agreements between the EU and third countries. On Thursday last week, Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox MP made a public announcement confirming that little had changed since he gave evidence to the International Trade Select Committee on the 6 February and that the progress has been minimal. So far, only six out of the 40 existing trade agreements have been signed, covering a total of 9 countries; Chile, Faroe Islands, Switzerland, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zimbabwe. One further agreement is close to being finalised, adding another 2 countries (Fiji and Papua New Guinea) to the list. This still leaves about 60 Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries without continuity agreements. Dr Fox also announced that some agreements will definitely not be in place for exit day, those with Andorra, Japan, Turkey, and San Marino. The agreement with Algeria is also unlikely to be ready. When it comes to numbers, the announcement is [...]

By |2025-07-18T11:56:19+01:0025 February 2019|UK - Non EU|2 Comments
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It’s not just about the EU…

12 February 2019 Dr Michael Gasiorek is a Senior Lecturer in Economics and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. As a member of the EU, the UK is party to around 40 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with more than 70 countries. Over the last two years or so, the Government has stated that it intends to roll over, or more formally, ‘replicate’ these agreements. Indeed, in 2017 Liam Fox claimed that ”we’ll have up to 40 ready for one second after midnight in March 2019”. However, in recent weeks it has become clear that this is not going to happen,[1] and that at best there will only be a very small number of agreements replicated.[2] In this blog, we give some summary statistics outlining why this matters economically and which sectors are most vulnerable. We also discuss why, practically, very few agreements can be replicated by the current withdrawal date. […]

By , |2025-07-18T12:05:13+01:0012 February 2019|UK- EU|0 Comments
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BP 25 – Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators

Downland Briefing Paper 25 Briefing Paper 25 – November 2018 Julia Magntorn Key points Introduction What is the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clause? The wild world of EU MFN clauses Repeating GATS/GATT National Treatment & MFN combined Asymmetric MFN clauses in goods trade Comprehensive MFN clauses in services and investment Exceptions to MFN Impact on market access and national treatment commitments Implications for a future UK-EU deal Implications for improving on EU FTAs Conclusion Footnotes Key Points Most Favoured Nation clauses contained in EU’s trade agreements could limit the EU’s willingness to offer the UK better treatment in a future trade deal, as it would be required to extend the same treatment ‘for free’ to a number of its existing FTA partners. The EU’s agreements with Canada, South Korea, Japan, CARIFORUM, Vietnam and the updated EU-Mexico agreement all contain MFN clauses with respect to services and investment. MFN obligations impose an even larger constraint on these FTA partners, which would be obliged to extend to the EU, an economy six times the size of the UK, any potentially more-favourable treatment offered to the UK. There are specific conditions under which the MFN clauses no longer apply, but these [...]

By |2025-12-12T16:07:30+00:0015 November 2018|Comments Off on BP 25 – Most Favoured Nation clauses in EU trade agreements: one more hurdle for UK negotiators
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Briefing Paper 25 – MOST FAVOURED NATION CLAUSES IN EU TRADE AGREEMENTS: ONE MORE HURDLE FOR UK NEGOTIATORS

This Briefing Paper provides a comprehensive overview of the EU’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses on services and investment. It discusses their scope and the exceptions they contain, and then considers how these clauses are likely to limit the extent of concessions that the EU and its existing partners are prepared to grant the UK. Read Briefing Paper 25 – MOST FAVOURED NATION CLAUSES IN EU TRADE AGREEMENTS: ONE MORE HURDLE FOR UK NEGOTIATORS

By |2024-11-20T13:24:06+00:002 November 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Decoding the Facilitated Customs Arrangement

23 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory and Julia Magntorn is Research Officer in Economics at the UKTPO. There is much to digest in the White Paper on The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union and much to clarify. This blog is devoted entirely to trying to understand the Facilitated Customs Arrangement (FCA) that aims to deliver frictionless trade in goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit. The FCA matters because trade that is ‘as frictionless as possible’ with the EU is now accepted by nearly everyone as desirable and has been characterised by much of business as essential. It also matters in the short term, however, because it is the UK government’s offer to the EU on how to ensure that there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Without a solution to this latter problem there will be no Withdrawal Agreement and no transition. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:43:48+01:0023 July 2018|UK - Non EU|6 Comments
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