Download Briefing Paper 39 Briefing Paper 39 – March 2020 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett, Nicolo Tamberi, L. Alan Winters List of recommendations Introduction Evaluating the effects of the Government’s tariff proposals The UK’s current MFN tariff structure Tariffs with the proposed ‘simplification’ Agricultural tariffs Eliminating tariffs on intermediates Eliminating tariffs on items where there is no domestic production Recommendations Footnotes List of recommendations: Recommendation 1: In the near future, maintain as much as possible the existing structure of applied tariffs. Recommendation 2: Reducing firms’ imported input costs in order to increase their competitiveness is potentially a sensible strategy, but is not without its downsides. Recommendation 3: Decisions regarding the structure of applied tariffs should be made bearing in mind the possible regional consequences of any changes. Recommendation 4: The analysis of the impact of tariff changes on prices and households should be undertaken at a detailed level. Recommendation 5: Before eliminating tariffs on goods not produced within the UK, the impact on developing countries should be evaluated. Recommendation 6: We strongly support the idea of encouraging trade in environmental goods, but suggest that any such policy should not be based on the existing lists. Instead the government [...]

20 January 2020 Julia Magntorn Garrett and L Alan Winters (Download the The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: The implications for Wales’ external trade report) Preliminaries This note identifies issues that may impinge directly or indirectly on the Welsh economy as a result of the adoption of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland as part of the Withdrawal Agreement and subsequent Bill. We believe the main implications for Wales from the Protocol to be: Producers in Great Britain (GB) (including Welsh producers) are likely to lose market share in Northern Ireland (NI) as goods sent from GB to NI will face new customs checks, possibly customs duties, and other regulatory/administrative checks, while NI trade with the EU (notably with the Republic of Ireland – RoI) will remain frictionless. If Great Britain relaxes its regulations relative to EU regulations, NI producers might operate under higher costs than GB firms, as NI producers would still need to produce to EU standards. NI firms may therefore struggle to compete in the GB market. The more extensive are the trade barriers between the UK and the EU (notably RoI), and the less extensive are the border checks between GB and NI, the more incentive there will [...]

Download Briefing Paper 33 Briefing Paper 33 – July 2019 Michael Gasiorek, Julia Magntorn Garrett and Ilona Serwicka Introduction Conceptual Background Why is Trade a ‘Good Thing’…But Not Necessarily For All? Winners and Losers: What is the Evidence? People The China Effect The Skill Premium Within Industry Effects Trade and Gender Places Policy Responses Losers Winners Conclusion Footnotes Watch: Briefing Paper Launch and Panel Discussion INTRODUCTION Economists have long argued, and with good justification, that international trade brings overall benefits to economies. However, increasing trade is likely to create losers as well as winners. Indeed, within a broader context of rising inequality in many countries, recent years have seen growing public concern surrounding the negative consequences of trade and globalisation for certain sectors of society.[1] Those concerns, in turn, are seen as being partly responsible for the rise in populism in some developed countries.[2] Given such developments, and as the UK prepares to leave the EU and have an independent trade policy, it is important to understand how future trade agreements, or policy changes, may affect economic outcomes such as prices, productivity and output, and through these, individuals and regions. The aim of this Briefing Paper is, therefore, [...]

Download Briefing Paper 31 Briefing Paper 31 – June 2019 Authors: Julia Magntorn Garrett, Minako Morita-Jaeger and L. Alan Winters Key points Introduction An Evaluation of KOREU and KORUS GATS-PLUS achievements Comparing the extent of liberalisation by sector Comparing the degree of liberalisation by mode of supply Comparing regulatory cooperation Possible options for the UK and reality checks Conclusion Footnotes Online Appendix Key Points In the early months of 2019, the UK Government’s efforts to roll-over the EU’s existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) were focused on the narrow issue of preparing for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. But if the UK manages an orderly Brexit and has a transition period until the end of 2020, there would be time to do more than just rolling over these agreements. In the case of a future UK-Korea deal, the UK could potentially negotiate a new FTA built on the Korea-EU FTA (KorEU) or negotiate a completely new FTA modeled loosely on the Korea-US FTA (KORUS). Our comparative analysis of KorEU and KORUS reveals that the two FTAs took very different approaches to services trade liberalisation. While both achieved greater market access than Korea had committedin the GATS, KORUS seems to have achieved [...]